Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 06/09, 09:30

Prediction: Supreme FC vs Tung Sing

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.07Total

Supreme FC2.76

Tung Sing1.3

1X2

68% 17% 15%

Supreme FC Draw Tung Sing

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Supreme FC 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWWWW

Tung Sing 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWDLLW

Head-to-head

Supreme FC 3–1–0 Tung Sing (4 last)

Tung Sing2-3Supreme FC
Supreme FC3-2Tung Sing
Supreme FC1-0Tung Sing
Tung Sing1-1Supreme FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Supreme FC 1625 · Tung Sing 1522

	Supreme FC	Draw	Tung Sing
Our model	67%	18%	15%
Market	68%	16%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 4.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Supreme FC (rating 1625 vs 1522).
H2H favours Supreme FC: 3-1-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Supreme FC	Tung Sing
Goals for / against (FT)	4.1 / 1.3	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	2 / 0.3	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	75/25/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 7.1	1.8 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.50

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)2.00

2 (+1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 1 · xG: 4.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:27 +32’	1.33	5.50	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Supreme FC 3–1–0 Tung Sing

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Tung Sing	2-3 HT 0-3	Supreme FC
12/10/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Supreme FC	3-2 HT 3-2	Tung Sing
11/05/25 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Supreme FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Tung Sing
12/01/25 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Tung Sing	1-1 HT 0-0	Supreme FC

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bright Cerulean FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Central & Western	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Citizen AA	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hoi King	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kui Tan SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leaper FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lucky Mile	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Resources Capital FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sham Shui Po	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	South China AA	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Supreme FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tung Sing	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	WSE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yuen Long	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Supreme FC	Tung Sing
Citizen AA	4-3 W	4-0 W
Lucky Mile	6-3 W	6-2 W
Yuen Long	5-1 W	1-1 D
Shatin	4-1 W	2-0 W
Kwun Tong	3-1 W	3-2 W
Resources Capital FC	5-1 W	0-0 D
South China AA	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Supreme FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Supreme FC

WDWWWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	–	4-3	–	–	W
10/05	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	4-0	6-3	12	1	W
26/04	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	5-1	4	0	W
19/04	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	4-1	4	3	W
12/04	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	4-0	11	5	W
22/03	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
15/03	3 Sing FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	6-0	10	2	W
08/03	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	5-1	4	2	W
01/03	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
08/02	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	3-0	3-2	7	4	W

Tung Sing

LDLWWWDLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	3-2	6-2	2	3	W
10/05	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
26/04	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
19/04	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
12/04	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	3-2	6	5	W
22/03	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
15/03	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	3-0	4-0	1	3	W
08/03	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	2-4	7	4	L
01/03	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
08/02	Supreme FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	2-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Supreme FC vs Tung Sing?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Supreme FC win (68%). Probabilities: Supreme FC 68%, draw 17%, Tung Sing 15%.

How many goals are expected in Supreme FC vs Tung Sing?

The model expects 4.07 goals (Supreme FC 2.76 · Tung Sing 1.3), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Supreme FC vs Tung Sing?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.