Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 06/09, 09:30

Prediction: Hoi King vs Sham Shui Po

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Hoi King1.96

Sham Shui Po1.1

1X2

57% 22% 21%

Hoi King Draw Sham Shui Po

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Hoi King 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLDDWW

Sham Shui Po 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLDWDL

Head-to-head

Hoi King 2–3–1 Sham Shui Po (6 last)

Hoi King0-0Sham Shui Po
Sham Shui Po0-3Hoi King
Hoi King2-1Sham Shui Po
Sham Shui Po3-2Hoi King
Hoi King1-1Sham Shui Po
Hoi King1-1Sham Shui Po

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hoi King 1571 · Sham Shui Po 1514

	Hoi King	Draw	Sham Shui Po
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	58%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hoi King (rating 1571 vs 1514).
H2H favours Hoi King: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hoi King	Sham Shui Po
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/33/22%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.33

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:29 +30’	1.55	4.33	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hoi King 2–3–1 Sham Shui Po

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Hoi King	0-0 HT 0-0	Sham Shui Po
26/10/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Sham Shui Po	0-3 HT 0-0	Hoi King
26/01/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Hoi King	2-1 HT 1-1	Sham Shui Po
06/10/24 Hong Kong 1st Division	Sham Shui Po	3-2 HT 0-1	Hoi King
10/10/21 Hong Kong 1st Division	Hoi King	1-1 HT 0-1	Sham Shui Po
13/06/21 Hong Kong 1st Division	Hoi King	1-1 HT 0-0	Sham Shui Po

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bright Cerulean FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Central & Western	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Citizen AA	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hoi King	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kui Tan SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leaper FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lucky Mile	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Resources Capital FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sham Shui Po	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	South China AA	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Supreme FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tung Sing	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	WSE	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yuen Long	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hoi King	Sham Shui Po
Shatin	3-2 W	1-2 L
Central & Western	2-0 W	3-0 W
Resources Capital FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
WSE	0-5 L	1-2 L
South China AA	0-2 L	4-3 W
Lucky Mile	5-1 W	2-0 W
Citizen AA	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sham Shui Po (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hoi King

WDWLLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
26/04	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
19/04	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
12/04	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
22/03	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-5	0-5	1	2	L
15/03	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	3-4	5	5	L
08/03	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
01/03	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	5-1	5	2	W
08/02	3 Sing FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
01/02	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	2-1	6	1	W

Sham Shui Po

WLWWWLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	6	8	L
10/05	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
26/04	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	4-3	2	4	W
19/04	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
12/04	Supreme FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
22/03	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	3-0	6	0	W
15/03	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
08/03	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	4-0	13	1	W
01/03	Shatin Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
08/02	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	3-1	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hoi King vs Sham Shui Po?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hoi King win (57%). Probabilities: Hoi King 57%, draw 22%, Sham Shui Po 21%.

How many goals are expected in Hoi King vs Sham Shui Po?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Hoi King 1.96 · Sham Shui Po 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hoi King vs Sham Shui Po?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.