Football · Finland Kakkonen Group C · 06/09, 17:30

Prediction: FF Jaro II vs VPS-J

Team pages: FF Jaro II · VPS-J

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.56Total

FF Jaro II1.97

VPS-J2.59

1X2

29% 20% 51%

FF Jaro II Draw VPS-J

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

FF Jaro II 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLLLDL

VPS-J 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLWLLW

Head-to-head

FF Jaro II 1–1–2 VPS-J (4 last)

VPS-J5-0FF Jaro II
FF Jaro II2-1VPS-J
FF Jaro II1-1VPS-J
VPS-J2-0FF Jaro II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FF Jaro II 1436 · VPS-J 1516

	FF Jaro II	Draw	VPS-J
Our model	29%	20%	51%
Market	29%	20%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 4.56 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VPS-J (rating 1436 vs 1516).
H2H favours VPS-J: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FF Jaro II	VPS-J
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 3	2.8 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.7	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X4.50

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.85

Under 4.51.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.55 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.73
2	1.73 → 1.75▲	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +10’	3.20	4.50	1.73
20:06 +3’	3.10▼	4.50	1.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:03 +6’	3.55	4.73	1.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FF Jaro II 1–1–2 VPS-J

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/08/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	VPS-J	5-0 HT 2-0	FF Jaro II
21/05/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	FF Jaro II	2-1 HT 1-1	VPS-J
17/07/24 Finland Kolmonen	FF Jaro II	1-1 HT 1-0	VPS-J
23/04/24 Finland Kolmonen	VPS-J	2-0 HT 0-0	FF Jaro II

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group C · Kakkonen 2026, Championship Round, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huima/Urho	20	12	4	4	56	27	40
2	JBK	20	11	2	7	43	25	35
3	GBK	20	10	3	7	49	41	33
4	VPS-J	20	8	4	8	53	45	28
5	Narpes Kraft	20	8	2	10	52	51	26
6	FF Jaro II	20	8	2	10	36	58	26

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FF Jaro II	VPS-J
Narpes Kraft	1-2 L	2-3 L
GBK	2-2 D	6-4 W
JS Hercules	1-3 L	3-1 W
Huima/Urho	2-6 L	0-5 L
JBK	1-3 L	0-2 L
FC Vaajakoski	2-5 L	2-3 L
SJK Akatemia II	2-3 L	6-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: VPS-J (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FF Jaro II

LLWDLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	1-2	10	8	L
28/08	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
22/08	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
15/08	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-2	2-6	1	2	L
07/08	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	1-3	2	5	L
03/08	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	0-5	3	0	L
22/07	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
18/07	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
12/07	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-3	2-5	4	4	L
08/07	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	2-3	7	6	L

VPS-J

WLWLWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	3-0	6-4	9	1	W
29/08	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	0-5	5	7	L
22/08	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-3	1-4	8	3	L
15/08	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-0	3-1	7	6	W
08/08	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	2-3	2	4	L
03/08	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-0	5-0	4	0	W
25/07	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	0-2	8	9	L
19/07	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	3-2	6-2	6	7	W
12/07	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	2-3	8	4	L
05/07	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	3-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FF Jaro II vs VPS-J?

According to our model, the most likely result is an VPS-J win (51%). Probabilities: FF Jaro II 29%, draw 20%, VPS-J 51%.

How many goals are expected in FF Jaro II vs VPS-J?

The model expects 4.56 goals (FF Jaro II 1.97 · VPS-J 2.59), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FF Jaro II vs VPS-J?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.