Football · Finland Kakkonen Group C · 11/09, 17:30

Prediction: TP-47 vs JS Hercules

Team pages: TP-47 · JS Hercules

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

TP-472.25

JS Hercules1.33

1X2

58% 21% 22%

TP-47 Draw JS Hercules

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

TP-47 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWLWW

JS Hercules 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWWLDLWL

Head-to-head

TP-47 3–1–2 JS Hercules (6 last)

TP-470-1JS Hercules
JS Hercules1-2TP-47
JS Hercules1-1TP-47
TP-471-5JS Hercules
JS Hercules1-5TP-47
TP-473-2JS Hercules

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TP-47 1480 · JS Hercules 1477

	TP-47	Draw	JS Hercules
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	58%	20%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours TP-47: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TP-47	JS Hercules
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	1.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	1.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.50

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 10:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.55▼	Bet365 1.55
X	4.20 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.68
2	3.40 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.42 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:08 +16’	1.73	4.20	3.40
21:53 +25’	1.60▼	4.33▲	3.90▲
08:06 +5’	1.53▼	4.50▲	4.20▲
09:56 +19’	1.55▲	4.50	4.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:06 +38’	1.57	4.29	4.22
20:10 +127’	1.54▼	4.36▲	4.39▲
08:07 +4’	1.51▼	4.55▲	4.42▲
09:23 +52’	1.50▼	4.68▲	4.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TP-47 3–1–2 JS Hercules

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	TP-47	0-1 HT 0-0	JS Hercules
09/05/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	JS Hercules	1-2 HT 0-0	TP-47
28/02/26 Europe Friendlies	JS Hercules	1-1 HT 0-1	TP-47
24/07/25 Finland Kakkonen Group C	TP-47	1-5 HT 1-2	JS Hercules
22/05/25 Finland Kakkonen Group C	JS Hercules	1-5 HT 0-2	TP-47
25/07/24 Finland Kakkonen Group C	TP-47	3-2 HT 1-1	JS Hercules

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group C · Kakkonen 2026, Relegation Round, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	TP-47	19	7	5	7	31	36	26
2	FC Vaajakoski	19	7	3	9	36	44	24
3	JS Hercules	19	6	3	10	31	44	21
4	SJK Akatemia II	19	5	4	10	28	44	19

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TP-47	JS Hercules
SJK Akatemia II	3-1 W	2-2 D
FC Vaajakoski	4-2 W	0-2 L
JBK	0-4 L	5-3 W
Narpes Kraft	2-1 W	2-3 L
Huima/Urho	0-4 L	0-0 D
FF Jaro II	0-2 L	3-1 W
GBK	3-4 L	0-7 L
VPS-J	0-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TP-47

LLDLLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
22/08	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-2	4-2	9	5	W
16/08	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	0-4	7	7	L
08/08	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
01/08	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-4	4	4	L
23/07	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
18/07	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
12/07	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
04/07	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-1	3-4	–	–	L
27/06	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	0-3	6	2	L

JS Hercules

LDDWWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
22/08	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
15/08	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	1-3	9	6	L
09/08	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
01/08	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
23/07	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/07	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	3-1	5-3	4	3	W
11/07	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
04/07	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	2-2	1	2	D
27/06	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-5	0-7	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TP-47 vs JS Hercules?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TP-47 win (58%). Probabilities: TP-47 58%, draw 21%, JS Hercules 22%.

How many goals are expected in TP-47 vs JS Hercules?

The model expects 3.58 goals (TP-47 2.25 · JS Hercules 1.33), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in TP-47 vs JS Hercules?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.