Football · Malta Challenge League · 17/10, 14:00
Prediction: St Andrews vs Mgarr United
Team pages: St Andrews · Mgarr United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
St Andrews1.27
Mgarr United1.68
1X2
St Andrews
Draw
Mgarr United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
St Andrews
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Mgarr United
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
St Andrews
2–2
Mgarr United
(4 last)
- St Andrews0-4Mgarr United
- Mgarr United2-1St Andrews
- St Andrews2-0Mgarr United
- Mgarr United1-4St Andrews
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St Andrews 1455 · Mgarr United 1517
| St Andrews | Draw | Mgarr United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mgarr United (rating 1455 vs 1517).
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Andrews | Mgarr United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.9 | 1.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.6 | 3 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Andrews 2–0–2 Mgarr United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/25 Malta Challenge League | St Andrews | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Mgarr United |
| 28/09/24 Malta Challenge League | Mgarr United | 2-1 HT 1-0 | St Andrews |
| 03/04/22 Malta Challenge League | St Andrews | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Mgarr United |
| 11/12/21 Malta Challenge League | Mgarr United | 1-4 HT 1-3 | St Andrews |
Standings · Malta Challenge League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Fgura United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Naxxar Lions | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| 4 | Mgarr United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Victoria Hotspurs | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Melita FC Saint Julian | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Swieqi Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 8 | Sirens | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Vittoriosa Stars | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | St Andrews | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Santa Lucia FC | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Pieta Hotspurs | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 13 | Zebbug Rangers FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Attard | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 15 | Zurrieq FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | St Andrews | Mgarr United |
|---|---|---|
| Gudja United | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Santa Lucia FC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Melita FC Saint Julian | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Andrews
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Gudja United Malta Challenge League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/09 | Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Victoria Hotspurs Malta Challenge League |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 04/04 | Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/03 | Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 07/03 | Sirens Malta Challenge League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/03 | Fgura United Malta Challenge League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 22/02 | Balzan FC Malta Challenge League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
Mgarr United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Challenge League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Gudja United Malta Challenge League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 15/03 | Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 08/03 | Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 28/02 | Marsa FC Malta Challenge League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 21/02 | Mtarfa Malta Challenge League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St Andrews vs Mgarr United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mgarr United win (46%). Probabilities: St Andrews 28%, draw 26%, Mgarr United 46%.
How many goals are expected in St Andrews vs Mgarr United?
The model expects 2.94 goals (St Andrews 1.27 · Mgarr United 1.68), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in St Andrews vs Mgarr United?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.