Football · Malta Challenge League · 25/10, 19:30

Prediction: Mgarr United vs Zurrieq FC

Team pages: Mgarr United · Zurrieq FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Mgarr United1.71

Zurrieq FC1.15

1X2

50% 25% 25%

Mgarr United Draw Zurrieq FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Mgarr United 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDDLLLWWW

Zurrieq FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWLLDW

Head-to-head

Mgarr United 0–2–2 Zurrieq FC (4 last)

Zurrieq FC4-2Mgarr United
Zurrieq FC1-1Mgarr United
Mgarr United0-2Zurrieq FC
Zurrieq FC1-1Mgarr United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mgarr United 1522 · Zurrieq FC 1497

	Mgarr United	Draw	Zurrieq FC
Our model	49%	26%	24%
Market	50%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Zurrieq FC: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mgarr United	Zurrieq FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.1	2.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +9’	1.80	3.60	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mgarr United 0–2–2 Zurrieq FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Malta Challenge League	Zurrieq FC	4-2 HT 1-1	Mgarr United
01/02/26 Malta Challenge League	Zurrieq FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Mgarr United
05/04/25 Malta Challenge League	Mgarr United	0-2 HT 0-2	Zurrieq FC
09/02/25 Malta Challenge League	Zurrieq FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Mgarr United

Standings · Malta Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tarxien Rainbows FC	4	4	0	0	11	4	12
2	Naxxar Lions	4	3	0	1	9	6	9
3	Mgarr United	4	3	0	1	7	4	9
4	Fgura United	4	2	2	0	8	1	8
5	Swieqi Utd	4	2	1	1	9	8	7
6	Pieta Hotspurs	4	2	0	2	8	8	6
7	Victoria Hotspurs	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
8	Vittoriosa Stars	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
9	Melita FC Saint Julian	4	1	1	2	4	4	4
10	Santa Lucia FC	4	0	4	0	2	2	4
11	Sirens	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
12	Zurrieq FC	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
13	St Andrews	4	1	1	2	2	6	4
14	Attard	4	0	3	1	6	8	3
15	Zebbug Rangers FC	4	1	0	3	3	9	3
16	Gudja United	4	0	0	4	0	7	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mgarr United	Zurrieq FC
Vittoriosa Stars	2-0 W	1-2 L
Gudja United	0-2 L	1-0 W
Santa Lucia FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Zebbug Rangers FC	2-0 W	3-3 D
Marsa FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mgarr United (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mgarr United

WWDDLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
10/10	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
19/09	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
13/09	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Challenge League	0-2	1-3	10	2	L
18/04	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	1-1	2-4	5	4	L
12/04	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
06/04	Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
15/03	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
08/03	Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
28/02	Marsa FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-1	1	0	W

Zurrieq FC

LWDWLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
11/10	Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
19/09	Victoria Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
12/09	Sirens Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
18/04	Mgarr United Malta Challenge League	1-1	4-2	1	4	W
12/04	Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League	0-2	0-3	8	2	L
01/04	Marsa FC Malta Challenge League	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
15/03	Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League	1-2	3-3	2	4	D
07/03	Mtarfa Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
28/02	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	1-2	1-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mgarr United vs Zurrieq FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mgarr United win (50%). Probabilities: Mgarr United 50%, draw 25%, Zurrieq FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Mgarr United vs Zurrieq FC?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Mgarr United 1.71 · Zurrieq FC 1.15), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mgarr United vs Zurrieq FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.