Football · Malta Challenge League · 23/10, 18:15

Prediction: Zebbug Rangers FC vs Melita FC Saint Julian

Team pages: Zebbug Rangers FC · Melita FC Saint Julian

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Zebbug Rangers FC0.95

Melita FC Saint Julian2

1X2

17% 22% 61%

Zebbug Rangers FC Draw Melita FC Saint Julian

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Zebbug Rangers FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWDLLWL

Melita FC Saint Julian 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLDL

Head-to-head

Zebbug Rangers FC 3–1–2 Melita FC Saint Julian (6 last)

Zebbug Rangers FC1-4Melita FC Saint Julian
Melita FC Saint Julian2-1Zebbug Rangers FC
Zebbug Rangers FC1-0Melita FC Saint Julian
Melita FC Saint Julian0-2Zebbug Rangers FC
Zebbug Rangers FC2-1Melita FC Saint Julian
Melita FC Saint Julian2-2Zebbug Rangers FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zebbug Rangers FC 1481 · Melita FC Saint Julian 1455

	Zebbug Rangers FC	Draw	Melita FC Saint Julian
Our model	16%	23%	61%
Market	17%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Zebbug Rangers FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zebbug Rangers FC	Melita FC Saint Julian
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.4	2.6 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.20

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.33 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
2	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +4’	5.25	4.33	1.45
22:24 +6’	5.25	4.20▼	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zebbug Rangers FC 3–1–2 Melita FC Saint Julian

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Malta Challenge League	Zebbug Rangers FC	1-4 HT 0-1	Melita FC Saint Julian
27/01/24 Malta Challenge League	Melita FC Saint Julian	2-1 HT 1-1	Zebbug Rangers FC
03/03/18 Malta Challenge League	Zebbug Rangers FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Melita FC Saint Julian
28/10/17 Malta Challenge League	Melita FC Saint Julian	0-2 HT 0-0	Zebbug Rangers FC
05/02/17 Malta Division 1	Zebbug Rangers FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Melita FC Saint Julian
02/10/16 Malta Challenge League	Melita FC Saint Julian	2-2 HT 0-2	Zebbug Rangers FC

Standings · Malta Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tarxien Rainbows FC	4	4	0	0	11	4	12
2	Naxxar Lions	4	3	0	1	9	6	9
3	Mgarr United	4	3	0	1	7	4	9
4	Fgura United	4	2	2	0	8	1	8
5	Swieqi Utd	4	2	1	1	9	8	7
6	Pieta Hotspurs	4	2	0	2	8	8	6
7	Victoria Hotspurs	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
8	Vittoriosa Stars	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
9	Melita FC Saint Julian	4	1	1	2	4	4	4
10	Santa Lucia FC	4	0	4	0	2	2	4
11	Sirens	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
12	Zurrieq FC	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
13	St Andrews	4	1	1	2	2	6	4
14	Attard	4	0	3	1	6	8	3
15	Zebbug Rangers FC	4	1	0	3	3	9	3
16	Gudja United	4	0	0	4	0	7	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zebbug Rangers FC	Melita FC Saint Julian
Swieqi Utd	1-0 W	0-5 L
Fgura United	0-4 L	0-1 L
Gudja United	2-1 W	3-0 W
Mgarr United	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Melita FC Saint Julian (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zebbug Rangers FC

WLDWWDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-2	7	4	L
10/10	Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
20/09	Naxxar Lions Malta Challenge League	0-1	1-3	1	5	L
13/09	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	0-2	0-4	1	6	L
18/04	Marsa FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
11/04	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-0	6	0	W
04/04	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
15/03	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	2-1	3-3	3	4	D
08/03	Mgarr United Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-2	11	3	L
01/03	Mtarfa Malta Challenge League	3-0	6-0	4	2	W

Melita FC Saint Julian

LLWLLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	0-2	0-2	14	3	L
11/10	Attard Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
19/09	Mgarr United Malta Challenge League	0-2	1-2	12	4	L
13/09	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	0-0	3-0	5	4	W
19/04	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
11/04	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
04/04	Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League	0-2	0-5	3	3	L
14/03	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	2-0	3-0	1	4	W
08/03	Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
28/02	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zebbug Rangers FC vs Melita FC Saint Julian?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Melita FC Saint Julian win (61%). Probabilities: Zebbug Rangers FC 17%, draw 22%, Melita FC Saint Julian 61%.

How many goals are expected in Zebbug Rangers FC vs Melita FC Saint Julian?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Zebbug Rangers FC 0.95 · Melita FC Saint Julian 2), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Zebbug Rangers FC vs Melita FC Saint Julian?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.