Football · Malta Challenge League · 17/10, 19:30

Prediction: Fgura United vs Santa Lucia FC

Team pages: Fgura United · Santa Lucia FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Fgura United1.35

Santa Lucia FC1.35

1X2

36% 27% 36%

Fgura United Draw Santa Lucia FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Fgura United 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWDWDW

Santa Lucia FC 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DWDLDWWDDD

Head-to-head

Fgura United 3–0 Santa Lucia FC (3 last)

Fgura United2-1Santa Lucia FC
Fgura United2-0Santa Lucia FC
Fgura United5-1Santa Lucia FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fgura United 1525 · Santa Lucia FC 1517

	Fgura United	Draw	Santa Lucia FC
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fgura United: 3-0-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fgura United	Santa Lucia FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6	2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.40

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +5’	2.40	3.40	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fgura United 3–0–0 Santa Lucia FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 Malta FA Trophy	Fgura United	2-1 HT 2-0	Santa Lucia FC
20/09/25 Malta Challenge League	Fgura United	2-0 HT 0-0	Santa Lucia FC
25/01/25 Malta Challenge League	Fgura United	5-1 HT 3-1	Santa Lucia FC

Standings · Malta Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tarxien Rainbows FC	3	3	0	0	9	3	9
2	Fgura United	3	2	1	0	8	1	7
3	Naxxar Lions	3	2	0	1	8	6	6
4	Mgarr United	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
4	Victoria Hotspurs	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
6	Melita FC Saint Julian	3	1	1	1	4	2	4
7	Swieqi Utd	3	1	1	1	6	6	4
8	Sirens	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
9	Vittoriosa Stars	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
10	St Andrews	3	1	1	1	2	4	4
11	Santa Lucia FC	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
12	Pieta Hotspurs	3	1	0	2	6	8	3
13	Zebbug Rangers FC	3	1	0	2	2	7	3
14	Attard	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
15	Zurrieq FC	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
16	Gudja United	3	0	0	3	0	6	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fgura United	Santa Lucia FC
Zebbug Rangers FC	4-0 W	1-1 D
St Andrews	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Fgura United (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fgura United

LWLLLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Victoria Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	1-0	3-0	4	8	W
19/09	Sirens Malta Challenge League	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
13/09	Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League	2-0	4-0	6	6	W
19/04	Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
11/04	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-0	13	2	W
04/04	Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-4	2	1	L
15/03	Sirens Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-3	5	1	L
10/03	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	0-2	1-2	7	4	L
01/03	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
22/02	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	0-2	1-3	1	3	L

Santa Lucia FC

DWDLDWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
18/09	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
19/04	Mtarfa Malta Challenge League	4-0	5-1	13	3	W
12/04	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
06/04	Mgarr United Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
14/03	Marsa FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
08/03	Vittoriosa Stars Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
28/02	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
21/02	Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fgura United vs Santa Lucia FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fgura United win (36%). Probabilities: Fgura United 36%, draw 27%, Santa Lucia FC 36%.

How many goals are expected in Fgura United vs Santa Lucia FC?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Fgura United 1.35 · Santa Lucia FC 1.35), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fgura United vs Santa Lucia FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.