Football · Malta Challenge League · 25/10, 17:00

Prediction: Pieta Hotspurs vs Vittoriosa Stars

Team pages: Pieta Hotspurs · Vittoriosa Stars

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Pieta Hotspurs1.89

Vittoriosa Stars1.1

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Pieta Hotspurs Draw Vittoriosa Stars

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Pieta Hotspurs 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDWLLW

Vittoriosa Stars 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLDWLD

Head-to-head

Pieta Hotspurs 5–1 Vittoriosa Stars (6 last)

Pieta Hotspurs2-0Vittoriosa Stars
Pieta Hotspurs2-1Vittoriosa Stars
Vittoriosa Stars1-2Pieta Hotspurs
Pieta Hotspurs3-0Vittoriosa Stars
Pieta Hotspurs3-0Vittoriosa Stars
Vittoriosa Stars2-1Pieta Hotspurs

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pieta Hotspurs 1514 · Vittoriosa Stars 1485

	Pieta Hotspurs	Draw	Vittoriosa Stars
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pieta Hotspurs: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pieta Hotspurs	Vittoriosa Stars
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.1	2.4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.60

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:33 +12’	1.65	3.60	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pieta Hotspurs 5–0–1 Vittoriosa Stars

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/09/25 Malta Challenge League	Pieta Hotspurs	2-0 HT 1-0	Vittoriosa Stars
20/12/20 Malta Challenge League	Pieta Hotspurs	2-1 HT 1-1	Vittoriosa Stars
04/03/20 Malta Division 1	Vittoriosa Stars	1-2 HT 1-0	Pieta Hotspurs
13/10/19 Malta Challenge League	Pieta Hotspurs	3-0 HT 1-0	Vittoriosa Stars
02/03/18 Malta Division 1	Pieta Hotspurs	3-0 HT 1-0	Vittoriosa Stars
30/10/17 Malta Division 1	Vittoriosa Stars	2-1 HT 1-1	Pieta Hotspurs

Standings · Malta Challenge League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tarxien Rainbows FC	4	4	0	0	11	4	12
2	Naxxar Lions	4	3	0	1	9	6	9
3	Mgarr United	4	3	0	1	7	4	9
4	Fgura United	4	2	2	0	8	1	8
5	Swieqi Utd	4	2	1	1	9	8	7
6	Pieta Hotspurs	4	2	0	2	8	8	6
7	Victoria Hotspurs	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
8	Vittoriosa Stars	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
9	Melita FC Saint Julian	4	1	1	2	4	4	4
10	Santa Lucia FC	4	0	4	0	2	2	4
11	Sirens	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
12	Zurrieq FC	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
13	St Andrews	4	1	1	2	2	6	4
14	Attard	4	0	3	1	6	8	3
15	Zebbug Rangers FC	4	1	0	3	3	9	3
16	Gudja United	4	0	0	4	0	7	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pieta Hotspurs

LWDWWDWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
11/10	Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-3	1	7	L
18/09	Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League	1-1	2-3	7	4	L
12/09	Naxxar Lions Malta Challenge League	1-2	3-2	7	4	W
19/04	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-2	1	3	D
12/04	Sirens Malta Challenge League	1-2	4-3	3	0	W
04/04	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	0-0	4-0	7	1	W
14/03	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
08/03	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
28/02	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	1-3	7	4	L

Vittoriosa Stars

WDDWLLDWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Attard Malta Challenge League	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
10/10	Mgarr United Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-2	6	1	L
19/09	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
12/09	Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
18/04	Gudja United Malta Challenge League	0-2	2-3	4	1	L
11/04	Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
01/04	Mtarfa Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
15/03	Mgarr United Malta Challenge League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
08/03	Santa Lucia FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
28/02	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	2-1	2-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pieta Hotspurs vs Vittoriosa Stars?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pieta Hotspurs win (54%). Probabilities: Pieta Hotspurs 54%, draw 25%, Vittoriosa Stars 21%.

How many goals are expected in Pieta Hotspurs vs Vittoriosa Stars?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Pieta Hotspurs 1.89 · Vittoriosa Stars 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pieta Hotspurs vs Vittoriosa Stars?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.