Football · Malta Challenge League · 18/10, 19:30

Prediction: Swieqi Utd vs Sirens

Team pages: Swieqi Utd · Sirens

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Swieqi Utd1.84

Sirens1.19

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Swieqi Utd Draw Sirens

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Swieqi Utd 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDDDWL

Sirens 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLLWDL

Head-to-head

Swieqi Utd 1–1–3 Sirens (5 last)

Swieqi Utd2-0Sirens
Sirens1-1Swieqi Utd
Sirens3-0Swieqi Utd
Sirens1-0Swieqi Utd
Swieqi Utd0-5Sirens

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Swieqi Utd 1535 · Sirens 1463

	Swieqi Utd	Draw	Sirens
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Swieqi Utd (rating 1535 vs 1463).
H2H favours Sirens: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Swieqi Utd	Sirens
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.2	2.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:30 +2’	1.73	3.80	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Swieqi Utd 1–1–3 Sirens

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Malta Challenge League	Swieqi Utd	2-0 HT 0-0	Sirens
14/12/25 Malta Challenge League	Sirens	1-1 HT 0-0	Swieqi Utd
23/11/24 Malta Challenge League	Sirens	3-0 HT 2-0	Swieqi Utd
26/04/19 Malta Division 1	Sirens	1-0 HT 0-0	Swieqi Utd
16/01/19 Malta Division 1	Swieqi Utd	0-5 HT 0-4	Sirens

Standings · Malta Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tarxien Rainbows FC	3	3	0	0	9	3	9
2	Fgura United	3	2	1	0	8	1	7
3	Naxxar Lions	3	2	0	1	8	6	6
4	Mgarr United	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
4	Victoria Hotspurs	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
6	Melita FC Saint Julian	3	1	1	1	4	2	4
7	Swieqi Utd	3	1	1	1	6	6	4
8	Sirens	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
9	Vittoriosa Stars	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
10	St Andrews	3	1	1	1	2	4	4
11	Santa Lucia FC	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
12	Pieta Hotspurs	3	1	0	2	6	8	3
13	Zebbug Rangers FC	3	1	0	2	2	7	3
14	Attard	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
15	Zurrieq FC	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
16	Gudja United	3	0	0	3	0	6	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Swieqi Utd	Sirens
Pieta Hotspurs	3-2 W	3-4 L
Birzebbuga	1-1 D	2-3 L
Fgura United	1-1 D	1-1 D
St Andrews	1-0 W	3-0 W
Melita FC Saint Julian	5-0 W	0-2 L
Balzan FC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Swieqi Utd (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Swieqi Utd

WDWWWDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Zebbug Rangers FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
18/09	Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	1-1	3-2	3	4	W
12/09	Attard Malta Challenge League	2-1	3-3	14	0	D
23/04	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
19/04	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
11/04	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
04/04	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	2-0	5-0	6	3	W
14/03	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	1-0	2-1	4	8	W
08/03	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	1-2	2-2	10	4	D
01/03	Sirens Malta Challenge League	0-0	2-0	6	5	W

Sirens

LLWWLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Naxxar Lions Malta Challenge League	1-1	2-3	1	5	L
19/09	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
12/09	Zurrieq FC Malta Challenge League	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
19/04	Birzebbuga Malta Challenge League	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
12/04	Pieta Hotspurs Malta Challenge League	2-1	3-4	7	0	L
06/04	Balzan FC Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
15/03	Fgura United Malta Challenge League	1-0	3-2	8	1	W
07/03	St Andrews Malta Challenge League	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
01/03	Swieqi Utd Malta Challenge League	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
22/02	Melita FC Saint Julian Malta Challenge League	0-1	0-2	1	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Swieqi Utd vs Sirens?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Swieqi Utd win (52%). Probabilities: Swieqi Utd 52%, draw 24%, Sirens 24%.

How many goals are expected in Swieqi Utd vs Sirens?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Swieqi Utd 1.84 · Sirens 1.19), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Swieqi Utd vs Sirens?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.