Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 18/10, 07:30

Prediction: South China AA vs Lucky Mile

Team pages: South China AA · Lucky Mile

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.13Total

South China AA3.06

Lucky Mile1.06

1X2

81% 12% 8%

South China AA Draw Lucky Mile

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

South China AA 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLDWWW

Lucky Mile 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDL

Head-to-head

South China AA 2–0 Lucky Mile (2 last)

Lucky Mile0-4South China AA
South China AA6-0Lucky Mile

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South China AA 1586 · Lucky Mile 1367

	South China AA	Draw	Lucky Mile
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	84%	10%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 4.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South China AA (rating 1586 vs 1367).
H2H favours South China AA: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South China AA	Lucky Mile
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	1.2 / 4.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.6 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.7	1.9 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.5	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.10

X9.50

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.75)1.93

2 (+2.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.10 → 1.10	Bet365 1.10
X	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:19 +11’	1.10	9.50	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · South China AA 2–0–0 Lucky Mile

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Lucky Mile	0-4 HT 0-2	South China AA
02/11/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	South China AA	6-0 HT 1-0	Lucky Mile

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Yuen Long	5	4	1	0	16	3	13
2	WSE	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
3	Central & Western	5	4	0	1	20	6	12
4	Resources Capital FC	5	3	2	0	22	8	11
5	Citizen AA	6	3	2	1	10	9	11
6	South China AA	6	3	1	2	5	4	10
7	Tung Sing	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
8	Hoi King	6	2	2	2	10	11	8
9	Sham Shui Po	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
10	Sky Leader FC	6	2	0	4	6	13	6
11	Kui Tan SC	6	1	1	4	8	19	4
12	Bright Cerulean FC	5	1	0	4	5	21	3
13	Leaper FC	4	0	1	3	4	7	1
14	Lucky Mile	6	0	1	5	6	18	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South China AA	Lucky Mile
Sky Leader FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Tung Sing	1-0 W	2-6 L
WSE	0-1 L	0-9 L
Citizen AA	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: South China AA (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South China AA

WLWWLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
04/10	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
27/09	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
20/09	Resources Capital FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
13/09	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-1	11	5	L
06/09	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-2	1-2	7	6	L
17/05	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 1st Division	3-1	4-2	8	0	W
10/05	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
26/04	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	3-4	3	4	L
19/04	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-1	6	2	W

Lucky Mile

LLLLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
04/10	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	3-3	3	6	D
27/09	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-3	3	1	L
20/09	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	1-3	10	2	L
13/09	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
06/09	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	1-5	3	3	L
17/05	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	2-3	2-6	2	3	L
10/05	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-4	3-6	5	1	L
26/04	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
19/04	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-4	0-9	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South China AA vs Lucky Mile?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South China AA win (81%). Probabilities: South China AA 81%, draw 12%, Lucky Mile 8%.

How many goals are expected in South China AA vs Lucky Mile?

The model expects 4.13 goals (South China AA 3.06 · Lucky Mile 1.06), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in South China AA vs Lucky Mile?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.