Football · Hong Kong 1st Division · 08/11, 06:15

Prediction: Lucky Mile vs Tung Sing

Team pages: Lucky Mile · Tung Sing

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.13Total

Lucky Mile1.11

Tung Sing3.02

1X2

10% 14% 75%

Lucky Mile Draw Tung Sing

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Lucky Mile 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDLLW

Tung Sing 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDLLWL

Head-to-head

Lucky Mile 2–4 Tung Sing (6 last)

Tung Sing6-2Lucky Mile
Lucky Mile1-3Tung Sing
Tung Sing1-4Lucky Mile
Lucky Mile1-2Tung Sing
Tung Sing1-0Lucky Mile
Lucky Mile3-1Tung Sing

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lucky Mile 1420 · Tung Sing 1501

	Lucky Mile	Draw	Tung Sing
Our model	10%	15%	75%
Market	11%	14%	75%

Estimated total (ours) 4.13 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tung Sing (rating 1420 vs 1501).
H2H favours Tung Sing: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lucky Mile	Tung Sing
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 3.4	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.6	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.2	2.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

18.50

X6.50

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.88

2 (-2.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 8.50▲	Bet365 8.50
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:46 +45’	8.00	6.50	1.20
06:45 +1’	8.50▲	6.50	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucky Mile 2–0–4 Tung Sing

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Hong Kong 1st Division	Tung Sing	6-2 HT 3-2	Lucky Mile
14/09/25 Hong Kong 1st Division	Lucky Mile	1-3	Tung Sing
16/03/25 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Tung Sing	1-4 HT 1-0	Lucky Mile
22/09/24 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Lucky Mile	1-2 HT 0-1	Tung Sing
02/06/24 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Tung Sing	1-0 HT 1-0	Lucky Mile
04/12/22 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Lucky Mile	3-1 HT 0-1	Tung Sing

Standings · Hong Kong 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Yuen Long	7	6	1	0	23	5	19
2	Resources Capital FC	7	5	2	0	37	8	17
3	WSE	8	5	2	1	17	8	17
4	South China AA	8	5	1	2	10	5	16
5	Citizen AA	8	4	2	2	11	11	14
6	Tung Sing	8	4	1	3	10	8	13
7	Hoi King	8	3	3	2	14	14	12
8	Central & Western	7	4	0	3	23	12	12
9	Sky Leader FC	8	2	1	5	8	24	7
10	Sham Shui Po	8	2	1	5	8	14	7
11	Bright Cerulean FC	7	2	0	5	7	25	6
12	Lucky Mile	8	1	1	6	10	22	4
13	Kui Tan SC	8	1	1	6	9	27	4
14	Leaper FC	6	0	2	4	6	10	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lucky Mile	Tung Sing
Bright Cerulean FC	3-0 W	1-2 L
South China AA	1-4 L	0-1 L
Yuen Long	0-2 L	2-2 D
Citizen AA	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tung Sing (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lucky Mile

LLLLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-0	3-0	6	6	W
18/10	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	1-4	3	3	L
11/10	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
04/10	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 1st Division	2-1	3-3	3	6	D
27/09	Hoi King Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-3	3	1	L
20/09	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	1-1	1-3	10	2	L
13/09	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
06/09	Central & Western Hong Kong 1st Division	0-3	1-5	3	3	L
17/05	Tung Sing Hong Kong 1st Division	2-3	2-6	2	3	L
10/05	Sky Leader FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-4	3-6	5	1	L

Tung Sing

LWWWWDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Citizen AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
18/10	Leaper FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
11/10	Bright Cerulean FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-2	1-2	7	7	L
04/10	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
27/09	Yuen Long Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
20/09	WSE Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
13/09	Sham Shui Po Hong Kong 1st Division	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
06/09	Supreme FC Hong Kong 1st Division	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
17/05	Lucky Mile Hong Kong 1st Division	3-2	6-2	2	3	W
10/05	South China AA Hong Kong 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lucky Mile vs Tung Sing?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tung Sing win (75%). Probabilities: Lucky Mile 10%, draw 14%, Tung Sing 75%.

How many goals are expected in Lucky Mile vs Tung Sing?

The model expects 4.13 goals (Lucky Mile 1.11 · Tung Sing 3.02), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Lucky Mile vs Tung Sing?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.