Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 09/09, 16:00
Prediction: Kairat Almaty vs FK Zhenys
Team pages: Kairat Almaty · FK Zhenys
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Kairat Almaty2.05
FK Zhenys0.79
1X2
Kairat Almaty
Draw
FK Zhenys
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Kairat Almaty
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
FK Zhenys
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kairat Almaty
4–1–1
FK Zhenys
(6 last)
- FK Zhenys1-2Kairat Almaty
- Kairat Almaty3-1FK Zhenys
- FK Zhenys1-2Kairat Almaty
- Kairat Almaty2-0FK Zhenys
- FK Zhenys2-0Kairat Almaty
- Kairat Almaty1-1FK Zhenys
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kairat Almaty 1580 · FK Zhenys 1486
| Kairat Almaty | Draw | FK Zhenys | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 66% | 21% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kairat Almaty (rating 1580 vs 1486).
- H2H favours Kairat Almaty: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kairat Almaty | FK Zhenys | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.9 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 5.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kairat Almaty 4–1–1 FK Zhenys
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Zhenys | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Kairat Almaty |
| 22/09/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kairat Almaty | 3-1 HT 2-0 | FK Zhenys |
| 09/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Zhenys | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Kairat Almaty |
| 25/09/24 Kazakhstan League Cup | Kairat Almaty | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FK Zhenys |
| 10/08/24 Kazakhstan League Cup | FK Zhenys | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Kairat Almaty |
| 14/07/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kairat Almaty | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FK Zhenys |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 47 | 18 | 55 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 23 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 47 | 15 | 54 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 41 | 24 | 45 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 32 | 42 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 28 | 38 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | 32 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 29 | 32 | 31 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 27 | 31 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 25 | 29 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 25 | 34 | 26 |
| 11 | FK Atyrau | 23 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 23 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 36 | 23 |
| 13 | FC Altai Semey | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 34 | 22 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 25 | 41 | 22 |
| 15 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 24 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 20 | 32 | 20 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 32 | 20 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kairat Almaty | FK Zhenys |
|---|---|---|
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| FC Elimai Semey | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| FK Ulytau | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Kairat Almaty (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kairat Almaty
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 31/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 15/08 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 02/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 17/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
FK Zhenys
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 29/08 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 10 | L |
| 18/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 11/07 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 20/06 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kairat Almaty vs FK Zhenys?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kairat Almaty win (66%). Probabilities: Kairat Almaty 66%, draw 21%, FK Zhenys 13%.
How many goals are expected in Kairat Almaty vs FK Zhenys?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Kairat Almaty 2.05 · FK Zhenys 0.79), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Kairat Almaty vs FK Zhenys?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.