Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 18/09, 14:00

Prediction: FC Altai Semey vs Irtysh Pavlodar

Team pages: FC Altai Semey · Irtysh Pavlodar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

FC Altai Semey1.48

Irtysh Pavlodar1.11

1X2

45% 28% 27%

FC Altai Semey Draw Irtysh Pavlodar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Altai Semey 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLLWW

Irtysh Pavlodar 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLWLW

Head-to-head

FC Altai Semey 1–1–1 Irtysh Pavlodar (3 last)

Irtysh Pavlodar1-0FC Altai Semey
FC Altai Semey1-1Irtysh Pavlodar
Irtysh Pavlodar1-2FC Altai Semey

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Altai Semey 1456 · Irtysh Pavlodar 1490

	FC Altai Semey	Draw	Irtysh Pavlodar
Our model	44%	28%	27%
Market	45%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Altai Semey	Irtysh Pavlodar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:48 +6’	2.00	3.25	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Altai Semey 1–1–1 Irtysh Pavlodar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Altai Semey
17/10/25 Kazakhstan Division 1	FC Altai Semey	1-1 HT 0-1	Irtysh Pavlodar
11/07/25 Kazakhstan Division 1	Irtysh Pavlodar	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Altai Semey

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	25	18	4	3	48	18	58
2	Kairat Almaty	25	17	6	2	51	19	57
3	FC Astana	24	13	6	5	41	25	45
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	25	12	6	7	38	34	42
5	FK Aktobe	25	12	5	8	36	29	41
6	FC Elimai Semey	24	9	8	7	33	33	35
7	Tobol Kostanay	25	10	4	11	33	33	34
8	FK Zhenys	25	8	8	9	25	29	32
9	FK Ulytau	25	8	7	10	22	30	31
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	25	7	5	13	26	36	26
11	FC Altai Semey	25	6	7	12	25	34	25
12	FK Atyrau	24	4	11	9	18	25	23
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	24	5	8	11	24	33	23
14	Kaisar Kyzylorda	25	4	11	10	21	32	23
15	FK Kyzylzhar	25	6	5	14	25	39	23
16	Zhetysu	25	5	7	13	26	43	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Altai Semey	Irtysh Pavlodar
FK Ulytau	3-0 W	2-1 W
Kaisar Kyzylorda	2-0 W	0-0 D
FK Zhenys	0-1 L	0-1 L
Okzhetpes Kokshetau	1-4 L	2-1 W
FK Aktobe	2-4 L	2-1 W
Zhetysu	1-0 W	0-1 L
Tobol Kostanay	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Altai Semey (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Altai Semey

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
06/09	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
29/08	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
15/08	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	1-3	4	9	L
02/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-4	10	4	L
26/07	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-4	1	3	L
19/07	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	2-4	5	9	L
11/07	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
04/07	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
28/06	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-3	4	5	L

Irtysh Pavlodar

LDLWWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
05/09	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
30/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	1	3	W
16/08	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
09/08	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-3	2	8	L
01/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	3-2	12	9	W
25/07	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
11/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
05/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
28/06	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Altai Semey vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Altai Semey win (45%). Probabilities: FC Altai Semey 45%, draw 28%, Irtysh Pavlodar 27%.

How many goals are expected in FC Altai Semey vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

The model expects 2.6 goals (FC Altai Semey 1.48 · Irtysh Pavlodar 1.11), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Altai Semey vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.