Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 18/09, 17:00

Prediction: FK Aktobe vs FK Ulytau

Team pages: FK Aktobe · FK Ulytau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

FK Aktobe1.79

FK Ulytau1

1X2

55% 25% 20%

FK Aktobe Draw FK Ulytau

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Aktobe 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDWLWW

FK Ulytau 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLDLWLL

Head-to-head

FK Aktobe 1–1–1 FK Ulytau (3 last)

FK Ulytau1-1FK Aktobe
FK Ulytau2-1FK Aktobe
FK Aktobe1-0FK Ulytau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Aktobe 1536 · FK Ulytau 1448

	FK Aktobe	Draw	FK Ulytau
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Aktobe (rating 1536 vs 1448).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Aktobe	FK Ulytau
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.3	2.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.5	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.75

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.61▲	Bet365 1.61
X	3.80 → 3.75▼	Bet365 3.75
2	4.75 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:19 +8’	1.57	3.80	4.75
04:53 +17’	1.61▲	3.75▼	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Aktobe 1–1–1 FK Ulytau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Ulytau	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Aktobe
20/09/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Ulytau	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Aktobe
26/04/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Ulytau

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	25	18	4	3	48	18	58
2	Kairat Almaty	25	17	6	2	51	19	57
3	FC Astana	24	13	6	5	41	25	45
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	25	12	6	7	38	34	42
5	FK Aktobe	25	12	5	8	36	29	41
6	FC Elimai Semey	24	9	8	7	33	33	35
7	Tobol Kostanay	25	10	4	11	33	33	34
8	FK Zhenys	25	8	8	9	25	29	32
9	FK Ulytau	25	8	7	10	22	30	31
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	25	7	5	13	26	36	26
11	FC Altai Semey	25	6	7	12	25	34	25
12	FK Atyrau	24	4	11	9	18	25	23
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	24	5	8	11	24	33	23
14	Kaisar Kyzylorda	25	4	11	10	21	32	23
15	FK Kyzylzhar	25	6	5	14	25	39	23
16	Zhetysu	25	5	7	13	26	43	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Aktobe	FK Ulytau
FK Kaspyi Aktau	2-1 W	1-1 D
FK Zhenys	1-0 W	1-1 D
Irtysh Pavlodar	1-2 L	1-2 L
Kaisar Kyzylorda	2-1 W	1-0 W
FC Altai Semey	4-2 W	0-3 L
FC Astana	2-3 L	0-2 L
Zhetysu	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Aktobe (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Aktobe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
05/09	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
30/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
15/08	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	9	4	W
09/08	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
01/08	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-3	8	7	L
25/07	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	8	8	W
19/07	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	4-2	5	9	W
12/07	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
05/07	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	9	7	W

FK Ulytau

LWDLLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-3	9	5	L
06/09	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
29/08	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-0	3	7	W
15/08	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
08/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
02/08	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
25/07	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
18/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Aktobe vs FK Ulytau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Aktobe win (55%). Probabilities: FK Aktobe 55%, draw 25%, FK Ulytau 20%.

How many goals are expected in FK Aktobe vs FK Ulytau?

The model expects 2.79 goals (FK Aktobe 1.79 · FK Ulytau 1), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Aktobe vs FK Ulytau?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.