Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 17/09, 17:00
Prediction: FK Atyrau vs Ordabasy
Team pages: FK Atyrau · Ordabasy
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
FK Atyrau0.87
Ordabasy1.65
1X2
FK Atyrau
Draw
Ordabasy
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Atyrau
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Ordabasy
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Atyrau
0–4–2
Ordabasy
(6 last)
- Ordabasy1-1FK Atyrau
- Ordabasy2-2FK Atyrau
- FK Atyrau1-2Ordabasy
- Ordabasy1-0FK Atyrau
- FK Atyrau0-0Ordabasy
- FK Atyrau1-1Ordabasy
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Atyrau 1429 · Ordabasy 1575
| FK Atyrau | Draw | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 27% | 55% |
| Market | 20% | 24% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ordabasy (rating 1429 vs 1575).
- H2H favours Ordabasy: 2-4-0.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Atyrau | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.6 | 2.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.3 | 2.2 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atyrau 0–4–2 Ordabasy
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FK Atyrau |
| 03/08/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 2-2 HT 2-0 | FK Atyrau |
| 03/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Ordabasy |
| 15/09/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FK Atyrau |
| 25/05/24 Kazakhstan Cup | FK Atyrau | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ordabasy |
| 06/03/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ordabasy |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 18 | 58 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 25 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 51 | 19 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 25 | 45 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 34 | 42 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 36 | 29 | 41 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 33 | 33 | 35 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 34 |
| 8 | FK Zhenys | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 32 |
| 9 | FK Ulytau | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 30 | 31 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 36 | 26 |
| 11 | FC Altai Semey | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 25 | 34 | 25 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 25 | 23 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 33 | 23 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 32 | 23 |
| 15 | FK Kyzylzhar | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 43 | 22 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Atyrau | Ordabasy |
|---|---|---|
| FK Kyzylzhar | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| FC Astana | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Zhetysu | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Tobol Kostanay | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Kairat Almaty | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Ordabasy (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Atyrau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 26/07 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
Ordabasy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 29/08 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 08/08 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Atyrau vs Ordabasy?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ordabasy win (55%). Probabilities: FK Atyrau 19%, draw 25%, Ordabasy 55%.
How many goals are expected in FK Atyrau vs Ordabasy?
The model expects 2.52 goals (FK Atyrau 0.87 · Ordabasy 1.65), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Atyrau vs Ordabasy?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.