Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 14/10, 12:00
Prediction: Irtysh Pavlodar vs FC Astana
Team pages: Irtysh Pavlodar · FC Astana
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Irtysh Pavlodar1.07
FC Astana1.7
1X2
Irtysh Pavlodar
Draw
FC Astana
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Irtysh Pavlodar
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
FC Astana
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Irtysh Pavlodar
2–4
FC Astana
(6 last)
- FC Astana2-0Irtysh Pavlodar
- FC Astana0-2Irtysh Pavlodar
- Irtysh Pavlodar0-4FC Astana
- FC Astana0-1Irtysh Pavlodar
- FC Astana4-0Irtysh Pavlodar
- FC Astana3-0Irtysh Pavlodar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Irtysh Pavlodar 1480 · FC Astana 1551
| Irtysh Pavlodar | Draw | FC Astana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| Market | 23% | 25% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Astana (rating 1480 vs 1551).
- H2H favours FC Astana: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Irtysh Pavlodar | FC Astana | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.5 | 2.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 2.9 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Irtysh Pavlodar 2–0–4 FC Astana
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 10/11/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 15/05/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 0-4 HT 0-1 | FC Astana |
| 05/05/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 11/11/18 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 17/06/18 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 19 | 64 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 52 | 20 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 44 | 27 | 51 |
| 4 | FK Aktobe | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 32 | 45 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 37 | 45 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 36 | 36 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 36 | 37 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 32 | 35 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 27 | 34 | 32 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 37 | 32 |
| 11 | FK Kyzylzhar | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 28 | 40 | 27 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 20 | 29 | 26 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 26 |
| 14 | FC Altai Semey | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 27 | 38 | 25 |
| 15 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 27 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 23 | 37 | 24 |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 45 | 22 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Irtysh Pavlodar | FC Astana |
|---|---|---|
| FK Kyzylzhar | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| FC Altai Semey | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| FK Aktobe | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Tobol Kostanay | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| FC Elimai Semey | 1-3 L | 4-0 W |
| FK Ulytau | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Astana (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Irtysh Pavlodar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/09 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 30/08 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 09/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 12 | 9 | W |
| 25/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
FC Astana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 17/09 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Irtysh Pavlodar vs FC Astana?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Astana win (51%). Probabilities: Irtysh Pavlodar 23%, draw 25%, FC Astana 51%.
How many goals are expected in Irtysh Pavlodar vs FC Astana?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Irtysh Pavlodar 1.07 · FC Astana 1.7), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Irtysh Pavlodar vs FC Astana?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.