Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 24/10, 12:00
Prediction: Zhetysu vs Tobol Kostanay
Team pages: Zhetysu · Tobol Kostanay
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Zhetysu1.28
Tobol Kostanay1.43
1X2
Zhetysu
Draw
Tobol Kostanay
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Zhetysu
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Tobol Kostanay
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Zhetysu
0–2–4
Tobol Kostanay
(6 last)
- Tobol Kostanay2-2Zhetysu
- Zhetysu1-2Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay2-1Zhetysu
- Tobol Kostanay0-0Zhetysu
- Zhetysu0-3Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay1-0Zhetysu
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zhetysu 1435 · Tobol Kostanay 1527
| Zhetysu | Draw | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tobol Kostanay (rating 1435 vs 1527).
- H2H favours Tobol Kostanay: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Zhetysu | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.9 | 1.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 4.9 | 3.1 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Zhetysu 0–2–4 Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Zhetysu |
| 19/10/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Zhetysu | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 21/06/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Zhetysu |
| 13/04/25 Kazakhstan Cup | Tobol Kostanay | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Zhetysu |
| 18/08/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Zhetysu | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 04/05/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Zhetysu |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 28 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 58 | 20 | 67 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 57 | 20 | 63 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 46 | 29 | 52 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 42 | 37 | 48 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 45 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 38 | 44 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 39 | 38 | 40 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 27 | 34 | 35 |
| 9 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 31 | 39 | 33 |
| 10 | FK Zhenys | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 38 | 32 |
| 11 | FK Atyrau | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 22 | 32 | 27 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 41 | 27 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 26 | 42 | 26 |
| 14 | FC Altai Semey | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 28 | 39 | 26 |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 28 | 46 | 25 |
| 16 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 28 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 39 | 24 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Zhetysu | Tobol Kostanay |
|---|---|---|
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Kairat Almaty | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| FC Elimai Semey | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Irtysh Pavlodar | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| FK Ulytau | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| FK Zhenys | 1-4 L | 4-2 W |
| Ordabasy | 0-4 L | 0-2 L |
| FK Atyrau | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 6 L | 6 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Tobol Kostanay (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zhetysu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/09 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 05/09 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 29/08 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 25/07 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 11 | L |
Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
3-2 | 4-2 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 17/09 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 02/08 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zhetysu vs Tobol Kostanay?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tobol Kostanay win (40%). Probabilities: Zhetysu 33%, draw 28%, Tobol Kostanay 40%.
How many goals are expected in Zhetysu vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Zhetysu 1.28 · Tobol Kostanay 1.43), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Zhetysu vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.