Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh Pavlodar

Team pages: Kairat Almaty · Irtysh Pavlodar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Kairat Almaty2.18

Irtysh Pavlodar0.8

1X2

69% 19% 12%

Kairat Almaty Draw Irtysh Pavlodar

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Kairat Almaty 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Irtysh Pavlodar 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Kairat Almaty 4–2 Irtysh Pavlodar (6 last)

Irtysh Pavlodar0-1Kairat Almaty
Irtysh Pavlodar5-0Kairat Almaty
Irtysh Pavlodar0-2Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty2-1Irtysh Pavlodar
Kairat Almaty0-1Irtysh Pavlodar
Kairat Almaty4-0Irtysh Pavlodar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kairat Almaty 1551 · Irtysh Pavlodar 1475

	Kairat Almaty	Draw	Irtysh Pavlodar
Our model	68%	20%	12%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kairat Almaty (rating 1551 vs 1475).
H2H favours Kairat Almaty: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kairat Almaty	Irtysh Pavlodar
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.30▼	Bet365 1.30
X	4.75 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	6.50 → 7.00▲	Pinn 7.81 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:39 +18’	1.33	4.75	6.50
19:55 +9’	1.30▼	5.00▲	7.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +105’	1.29	4.97	7.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kairat Almaty 4–0–2 Irtysh Pavlodar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	0-1 HT 0-1	Kairat Almaty
03/11/19 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	5-0 HT 1-0	Kairat Almaty
04/08/19 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	0-2 HT 0-1	Kairat Almaty
19/05/19 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kairat Almaty	2-1 HT 2-1	Irtysh Pavlodar
27/10/18 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kairat Almaty	0-1 HT 0-1	Irtysh Pavlodar
06/07/18 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kairat Almaty	4-0 HT 3-0	Irtysh Pavlodar

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	28	21	4	3	58	20	67
2	Kairat Almaty	27	18	6	3	52	20	60
3	FC Astana	27	15	6	6	44	27	51
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	28	14	6	8	42	37	48
5	FK Aktobe	28	13	6	9	42	35	45
6	FC Elimai Semey	27	11	8	8	38	37	41
7	Tobol Kostanay	28	12	4	12	39	38	40
8	FK Ulytau	27	9	8	10	26	32	35
9	FK Kaspyi Aktau	27	9	5	13	29	37	32
10	FK Zhenys	28	8	8	12	29	38	32
11	FK Kyzylzhar	28	7	6	15	28	41	27
12	FK Atyrau	27	5	11	11	21	31	26
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	27	6	8	13	26	37	26
14	FC Altai Semey	27	6	7	14	27	38	25
15	Zhetysu	28	6	7	15	28	46	25
16	Kaisar Kyzylorda	28	4	12	12	24	39	24

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kairat Almaty	Irtysh Pavlodar
Zhetysu	1-0 W	0-1 L
FC Astana	0-1 L	0-1 L
Tobol Kostanay	1-4 L	0-2 L
FK Kaspyi Aktau	3-0 W	3-2 W
FC Elimai Semey	2-0 W	1-3 L
FK Ulytau	3-1 W	2-1 W
Okzhetpes Kokshetau	5-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Kairat Almaty (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kairat Almaty

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
17/09	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
13/09	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-4	6	2	L
09/09	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
05/09	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	3-0	2	1	W
31/08	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-0	4	10	W
15/08	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
26/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
18/07	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	3-0	3-1	6	2	W
02/07	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	3-0	5-0	5	2	W

Irtysh Pavlodar

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
10/10	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
18/09	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
13/09	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
05/09	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
30/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	1	3	W
16/08	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
09/08	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-3	2	8	L
01/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	3-2	12	9	W
25/07	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kairat Almaty win (69%). Probabilities: Kairat Almaty 69%, draw 19%, Irtysh Pavlodar 12%.

How many goals are expected in Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Kairat Almaty 2.18 · Irtysh Pavlodar 0.8), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.