Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 18/10, 12:00

Prediction: FC Altai Semey vs FK Atyrau

Team pages: FC Altai Semey · FK Atyrau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

FC Altai Semey1.28

FK Atyrau1.18

1X2

38% 29% 33%

FC Altai Semey Draw FK Atyrau

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Altai Semey 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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FK Atyrau 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Altai Semey 0–1–1 FK Atyrau (2 last)

FK Atyrau1-0FC Altai Semey
FC Altai Semey1-1FK Atyrau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Altai Semey 1445 · FK Atyrau 1458

	FC Altai Semey	Draw	FK Atyrau
Our model	37%	30%	33%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Altai Semey	FK Atyrau
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	3.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.39
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.99 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:38 +17’	2.38	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:32 +142’	2.33	3.02	2.91
17:51 +117’	2.39▲	2.84▼	2.99▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Altai Semey 0–1–1 FK Atyrau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Atyrau	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Altai Semey
08/05/19 Kazakhstan Cup	FC Altai Semey	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Atyrau

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	28	21	4	3	58	20	67
2	Kairat Almaty	27	18	6	3	52	20	60
3	FC Astana	27	15	6	6	44	27	51
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	28	14	6	8	42	37	48
5	FK Aktobe	28	13	6	9	42	35	45
6	FC Elimai Semey	27	11	8	8	38	37	41
7	Tobol Kostanay	28	12	4	12	39	38	40
8	FK Ulytau	27	9	8	10	26	32	35
9	FK Kaspyi Aktau	27	9	5	13	29	37	32
10	FK Zhenys	28	8	8	12	29	38	32
11	FK Kyzylzhar	28	7	6	15	28	41	27
12	FK Atyrau	27	5	11	11	21	31	26
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	27	6	8	13	26	37	26
14	FC Altai Semey	27	6	7	14	27	38	25
15	Zhetysu	28	6	7	15	28	46	25
16	Kaisar Kyzylorda	28	4	12	12	24	39	24

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Altai Semey	FK Atyrau
Kaisar Kyzylorda	2-0 W	0-1 L
FK Zhenys	0-1 L	2-1 W
Ordabasy	1-3 L	0-3 L
FK Kyzylzhar	3-0 W	1-0 W
Okzhetpes Kokshetau	1-4 L	0-2 L
FC Astana	1-4 L	2-3 L
FK Aktobe	2-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Atyrau (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Altai Semey

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
18/09	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
13/09	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
06/09	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
29/08	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
15/08	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	1-3	4	9	L
08/08	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	3-0	8	2	W
02/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-4	10	4	L
26/07	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-4	1	3	L
19/07	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	2-4	5	9	L

FK Atyrau

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
10/10	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
17/09	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
12/09	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
05/09	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
30/08	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
16/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
09/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	9	D
26/07	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Altai Semey vs FK Atyrau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Altai Semey win (38%). Probabilities: FC Altai Semey 38%, draw 29%, FK Atyrau 33%.

How many goals are expected in FC Altai Semey vs FK Atyrau?

The model expects 2.46 goals (FC Altai Semey 1.28 · FK Atyrau 1.18), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Altai Semey vs FK Atyrau?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.