Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 18/10, 16:00

Prediction: FC Astana vs FK Kaspyi Aktau

Team pages: FC Astana · FK Kaspyi Aktau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

FC Astana2.08

FK Kaspyi Aktau0.8

1X2

67% 19% 13%

FC Astana Draw FK Kaspyi Aktau

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Astana 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWLWLW

FK Kaspyi Aktau 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDDWLLWW

Head-to-head

FC Astana 4–1–1 FK Kaspyi Aktau (6 last)

FK Kaspyi Aktau1-0FC Astana
FK Kaspyi Aktau1-2FC Astana
FC Astana3-1FK Kaspyi Aktau
FK Kaspyi Aktau0-3FC Astana
FC Astana4-0FK Kaspyi Aktau
FK Kaspyi Aktau0-0FC Astana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Astana 1555 · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1509

	FC Astana	Draw	FK Kaspyi Aktau
Our model	66%	21%	12%
Market	68%	18%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Astana (rating 1555 vs 1509).
H2H favours FC Astana: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Astana	FK Kaspyi Aktau
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.7	1.5 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.30▼	Bet365 1.30
X	4.33 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	5.25 → 6.25▲	Pinn 7.51 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:09 +12’	1.42	4.33	5.25
20:07 +5’	1.38▼	4.50▲	5.50▲
22:14 +10’	1.30▼	5.00▲	6.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:24 +58’	1.36	4.58	6.49
20:46 +46’	1.31▼	4.90▲	7.38▲
23:36 +35’	1.30▼	4.99▲	7.51▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Astana 4–1–1 FK Kaspyi Aktau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kaspyi Aktau	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Astana
02/07/23 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kaspyi Aktau	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Astana
24/06/23 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Astana	3-1 HT 2-0	FK Kaspyi Aktau
10/09/22 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kaspyi Aktau	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Astana
22/04/22 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Astana	4-0 HT 3-0	FK Kaspyi Aktau
22/09/21 Kazakhstan Cup	FK Kaspyi Aktau	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Astana

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	28	21	4	3	58	20	67
2	Kairat Almaty	27	18	6	3	52	20	60
3	FC Astana	27	15	6	6	44	27	51
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	28	14	6	8	42	37	48
5	FK Aktobe	28	13	6	9	42	35	45
6	FC Elimai Semey	27	11	8	8	38	37	41
7	Tobol Kostanay	28	12	4	12	39	38	40
8	FK Ulytau	27	9	8	10	26	32	35
9	FK Kaspyi Aktau	27	9	5	13	29	37	32
10	FK Zhenys	28	8	8	12	29	38	32
11	FK Kyzylzhar	28	7	6	15	28	41	27
12	FK Atyrau	27	5	11	11	21	31	26
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	27	6	8	13	26	37	26
14	FC Altai Semey	27	6	7	14	27	38	25
15	Zhetysu	28	6	7	15	28	46	25
16	Kaisar Kyzylorda	28	4	12	12	24	39	24

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Astana	FK Kaspyi Aktau
Irtysh Pavlodar	1-0 W	2-3 L
Tobol Kostanay	1-2 L	1-0 W
Kairat Almaty	1-0 W	0-3 L
FC Elimai Semey	4-0 W	2-2 D
FK Ulytau	2-0 W	1-1 D
FC Altai Semey	4-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Astana (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Astana

WWWDWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
10/10	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
17/09	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
12/09	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
06/09	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
30/08	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
16/08	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
09/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	9	4	W
02/08	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
26/07	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	4-1	9	3	W

FK Kaspyi Aktau

DWLDDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
18/09	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
12/09	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
05/09	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
30/08	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
16/08	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-2	1	7	D
08/08	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
01/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-3	1	9	L
26/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	3-2	4	10	W
18/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Astana vs FK Kaspyi Aktau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Astana win (67%). Probabilities: FC Astana 67%, draw 19%, FK Kaspyi Aktau 13%.

How many goals are expected in FC Astana vs FK Kaspyi Aktau?

The model expects 2.88 goals (FC Astana 2.08 · FK Kaspyi Aktau 0.8), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Astana vs FK Kaspyi Aktau?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.