Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 14/10, 16:00
Prediction: FK Atyrau vs FC Elimai Semey
Team pages: FK Atyrau · FC Elimai Semey
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
FK Atyrau1.33
FC Elimai Semey1.54
1X2
FK Atyrau
Draw
FC Elimai Semey
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Atyrau
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
FC Elimai Semey
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Atyrau
3–1–1
FC Elimai Semey
(5 last)
- FC Elimai Semey1-2FK Atyrau
- FC Elimai Semey3-2FK Atyrau
- FK Atyrau2-1FC Elimai Semey
- FK Atyrau1-0FC Elimai Semey
- FC Elimai Semey0-0FK Atyrau
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Atyrau 1455 · FC Elimai Semey 1481
| FK Atyrau | Draw | FC Elimai Semey | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Market | 32% | 27% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FK Atyrau: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Atyrau | FC Elimai Semey | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5.1 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 5.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atyrau 3–1–1 FC Elimai Semey
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 1-2 HT 1-2 | FK Atyrau |
| 26/10/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 3-2 HT 2-1 | FK Atyrau |
| 01/03/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Elimai Semey |
| 26/10/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Elimai Semey |
| 02/03/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Atyrau |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 19 | 64 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 52 | 20 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 44 | 27 | 51 |
| 4 | FK Aktobe | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 32 | 45 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 37 | 45 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 36 | 36 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 36 | 37 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 32 | 35 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 27 | 34 | 32 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 37 | 32 |
| 11 | FK Kyzylzhar | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 28 | 40 | 27 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 20 | 29 | 26 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 26 |
| 14 | FC Altai Semey | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 27 | 38 | 25 |
| 15 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 27 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 23 | 37 | 24 |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 45 | 22 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Atyrau | FC Elimai Semey |
|---|---|---|
| FK Zhenys | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Ordabasy | 0-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| FC Astana | 2-3 L | 0-4 L |
| FK Aktobe | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Zhetysu | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Tobol Kostanay | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Kairat Almaty | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 5 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Elimai Semey (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Atyrau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 17/09 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 26/07 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
FC Elimai Semey
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 17/09 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 06/09 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 31/08 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 16/08 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 02/08 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 19/07 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Atyrau vs FC Elimai Semey?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Elimai Semey win (41%). Probabilities: FK Atyrau 32%, draw 27%, FC Elimai Semey 41%.
How many goals are expected in FK Atyrau vs FC Elimai Semey?
The model expects 2.86 goals (FK Atyrau 1.33 · FC Elimai Semey 1.54), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Atyrau vs FC Elimai Semey?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.