Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 24/10, 15:00
Prediction: Ordabasy vs FK Zhenys
Team pages: Ordabasy · FK Zhenys
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Ordabasy2.54
FK Zhenys0.81
1X2
Ordabasy
Draw
FK Zhenys
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Ordabasy
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
FK Zhenys
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ordabasy
3–1–1
FK Zhenys
(5 last)
- FK Zhenys0-2Ordabasy
- Ordabasy2-1FK Zhenys
- FK Zhenys2-2Ordabasy
- Ordabasy1-2FK Zhenys
- FK Zhenys1-3Ordabasy
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ordabasy 1614 · FK Zhenys 1457
| Ordabasy | Draw | FK Zhenys | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Market | 74% | 16% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ordabasy (rating 1614 vs 1457).
- H2H favours Ordabasy: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ordabasy | FK Zhenys | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 5.3 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 5.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ordabasy 3–1–1 FK Zhenys
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Zhenys | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Ordabasy |
| 13/09/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 2-1 HT 0-0 | FK Zhenys |
| 30/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Zhenys | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Ordabasy |
| 26/10/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 1-2 HT 0-2 | FK Zhenys |
| 23/06/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Zhenys | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Ordabasy |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 28 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 58 | 20 | 67 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 57 | 20 | 63 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 46 | 29 | 52 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 42 | 37 | 48 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 45 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 38 | 44 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 39 | 38 | 40 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 27 | 34 | 35 |
| 9 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 31 | 39 | 33 |
| 10 | FK Zhenys | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 38 | 32 |
| 11 | FK Atyrau | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 22 | 32 | 27 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 41 | 27 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 26 | 42 | 26 |
| 14 | FC Altai Semey | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 28 | 39 | 26 |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 28 | 46 | 25 |
| 16 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 28 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 39 | 24 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ordabasy | FK Zhenys |
|---|---|---|
| FK Aktobe | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| FK Atyrau | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| FK Kyzylzhar | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| FC Altai Semey | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Zhetysu | 4-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Tobol Kostanay | 2-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Kairat Almaty | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Ordabasy (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ordabasy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 11/10 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 17/09 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 29/08 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 08/08 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
FK Zhenys
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-3 | 2-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 18/09 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 09/09 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 29/08 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ordabasy vs FK Zhenys?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ordabasy win (74%). Probabilities: Ordabasy 74%, draw 17%, FK Zhenys 9%.
How many goals are expected in Ordabasy vs FK Zhenys?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Ordabasy 2.54 · FK Zhenys 0.81), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Ordabasy vs FK Zhenys?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.