Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: FK Atyrau vs Irtysh Pavlodar

Team pages: FK Atyrau · Irtysh Pavlodar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

FK Atyrau1.31

Irtysh Pavlodar1.19

1X2

39% 29% 33%

FK Atyrau Draw Irtysh Pavlodar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Atyrau 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLLWLD

Irtysh Pavlodar 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWLLL

Head-to-head

FK Atyrau 1–1–4 Irtysh Pavlodar (6 last)

Irtysh Pavlodar1-1FK Atyrau
FK Atyrau0-3Irtysh Pavlodar
Irtysh Pavlodar1-0FK Atyrau
FK Atyrau1-3Irtysh Pavlodar
Irtysh Pavlodar1-0FK Atyrau
FK Atyrau2-0Irtysh Pavlodar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Atyrau 1461 · Irtysh Pavlodar 1461

	FK Atyrau	Draw	Irtysh Pavlodar
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Irtysh Pavlodar: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Atyrau	Irtysh Pavlodar
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.3	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.52 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:48 +4’	2.30	3.20	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:20 +135’	2.52	3.12	2.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atyrau 1–1–4 Irtysh Pavlodar

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Atyrau
31/08/19 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Atyrau	0-3 HT 0-1	Irtysh Pavlodar
26/05/19 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Atyrau
15/03/19 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Atyrau	1-3 HT 1-3	Irtysh Pavlodar
30/09/18 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Atyrau
12/08/18 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Atyrau	2-0 HT 1-0	Irtysh Pavlodar

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	28	21	4	3	58	20	67
2	Kairat Almaty	28	19	6	3	57	20	63
3	FC Astana	28	15	7	6	46	29	52
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	28	14	6	8	42	37	48
5	FK Aktobe	28	13	6	9	42	35	45
6	FC Elimai Semey	28	12	8	8	40	38	44
7	Tobol Kostanay	28	12	4	12	39	38	40
8	FK Ulytau	28	9	8	11	27	34	35
9	FK Kaspyi Aktau	28	9	6	13	31	39	33
10	FK Zhenys	28	8	8	12	29	38	32
11	FK Atyrau	28	5	12	11	22	32	27
12	FK Kyzylzhar	28	7	6	15	28	41	27
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	28	6	8	14	26	42	26
14	FC Altai Semey	28	6	8	14	28	39	26
15	Zhetysu	28	6	7	15	28	46	25
16	Kaisar Kyzylorda	28	4	12	12	24	39	24

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Atyrau	Irtysh Pavlodar
FC Altai Semey	1-1 D	2-1 W
FC Elimai Semey	1-2 L	1-3 L
FK Kyzylzhar	1-0 W	0-2 L
FC Astana	2-3 L	0-1 L
Okzhetpes Kokshetau	0-2 L	2-1 W
FK Aktobe	1-1 D	2-1 W
Zhetysu	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Atyrau

DDLLWLLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
14/10	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
10/10	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
17/09	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
12/09	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
05/09	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
30/08	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
16/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
09/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	9	D

Irtysh Pavlodar

WLLWLWWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-3	0-5	7	4	L
14/10	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
10/10	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
18/09	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
13/09	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
05/09	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
30/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	1	3	W
16/08	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
09/08	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-3	2	8	L
01/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	3-2	12	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Atyrau vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Atyrau win (39%). Probabilities: FK Atyrau 39%, draw 29%, Irtysh Pavlodar 33%.

How many goals are expected in FK Atyrau vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

The model expects 2.5 goals (FK Atyrau 1.31 · Irtysh Pavlodar 1.19), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Atyrau vs Irtysh Pavlodar?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.