Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 25/10, 11:00

Prediction: FC Altai Semey vs FC Elimai Semey

Team pages: FC Altai Semey · FC Elimai Semey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

FC Altai Semey1.53

FC Elimai Semey1.19

1X2

44% 27% 29%

FC Altai Semey Draw FC Elimai Semey

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Altai Semey 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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FC Elimai Semey 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Altai Semey 0–1–0 FC Elimai Semey (1 last)

FC Elimai Semey1-1FC Altai Semey

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Altai Semey 1465 · FC Elimai Semey 1518

	FC Altai Semey	Draw	FC Elimai Semey
Our model	44%	28%	28%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Elimai Semey (rating 1465 vs 1518).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Altai Semey	FC Elimai Semey
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.02
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.50 ★
2	2.30 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
09:46 +7’	2.63	3.30	2.30
12:24 +10’	3.00▲	3.40▲	2.05▼
17:04 +24’	2.00▼	3.40	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:20 +15’	2.60	3.57	2.28
16:19 +70’	2.02▼	3.50▼	2.86▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Altai Semey 0–1–0 FC Elimai Semey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Elimai Semey	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Altai Semey

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	28	21	4	3	58	20	67
2	Kairat Almaty	28	19	6	3	57	20	63
3	FC Astana	28	15	7	6	46	29	52
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	28	14	6	8	42	37	48
5	FK Aktobe	28	13	6	9	42	35	45
6	FC Elimai Semey	28	12	8	8	40	38	44
7	Tobol Kostanay	28	12	4	12	39	38	40
8	FK Ulytau	28	9	8	11	27	34	35
9	FK Kaspyi Aktau	28	9	6	13	31	39	33
10	FK Zhenys	28	8	8	12	29	38	32
11	FK Atyrau	28	5	12	11	22	32	27
12	FK Kyzylzhar	28	7	6	15	28	41	27
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	28	6	8	14	26	42	26
14	FC Altai Semey	28	6	8	14	28	39	26
15	Zhetysu	28	6	7	15	28	46	25
16	Kaisar Kyzylorda	28	4	12	12	24	39	24

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Altai Semey	FC Elimai Semey
FK Atyrau	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Kaspyi Aktau	1-2 L	2-2 D
Irtysh Pavlodar	1-2 L	3-1 W
FK Ulytau	3-0 W	2-1 W
FK Zhenys	0-1 L	0-0 D
FC Astana	1-4 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Elimai Semey (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Altai Semey

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
11/10	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
18/09	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
13/09	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
06/09	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
29/08	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
15/08	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	1-3	4	9	L
08/08	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	3-0	8	2	W
02/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-4	10	4	L
26/07	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-4	1	3	L

FC Elimai Semey

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	16	3	W
14/10	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
10/10	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-3	7	6	L
17/09	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
12/09	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	0	0	W
06/09	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-4	2	5	L
31/08	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-2	4	10	L
16/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	2-2	6	7	D
09/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	3-1	6	8	W
02/08	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Altai Semey vs FC Elimai Semey?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Altai Semey win (44%). Probabilities: FC Altai Semey 44%, draw 27%, FC Elimai Semey 29%.

How many goals are expected in FC Altai Semey vs FC Elimai Semey?

The model expects 2.72 goals (FC Altai Semey 1.53 · FC Elimai Semey 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Altai Semey vs FC Elimai Semey?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.