Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 25/10, 15:00

Prediction: FC Astana vs Kaisar Kyzylorda

Team pages: FC Astana · Kaisar Kyzylorda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

FC Astana2.05

Kaisar Kyzylorda0.88

1X2

64% 21% 15%

FC Astana Draw Kaisar Kyzylorda

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Astana 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Kaisar Kyzylorda 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLWDLL

Head-to-head

FC Astana 2–4–0 Kaisar Kyzylorda (6 last)

Kaisar Kyzylorda0-0FC Astana
FC Astana5-1Kaisar Kyzylorda
Kaisar Kyzylorda1-1FC Astana
Kaisar Kyzylorda0-1FC Astana
FC Astana1-1Kaisar Kyzylorda
FC Astana1-1Kaisar Kyzylorda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Astana 1561 · Kaisar Kyzylorda 1436

	FC Astana	Draw	Kaisar Kyzylorda
Our model	64%	22%	14%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Astana (rating 1561 vs 1436).
H2H favours FC Astana: 2-4-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Astana	Kaisar Kyzylorda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	1.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.40▲	Pinn 1.44 ★
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	6.50 → 6.00▼	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
09:45 +19’	1.36	4.33	6.50
21:40 +11’	1.40▲	4.33	6.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:02 +24’	1.43	4.38	5.68
19:27 +143’	1.44▲	4.25▼	5.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Astana 2–4–0 Kaisar Kyzylorda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kaisar Kyzylorda	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Astana
28/08/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Astana	5-1 HT 2-1	Kaisar Kyzylorda
04/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kaisar Kyzylorda	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Astana
18/09/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kaisar Kyzylorda	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Astana
12/05/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Astana	1-1 HT 0-0	Kaisar Kyzylorda
20/08/23 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Astana	1-1 HT 0-0	Kaisar Kyzylorda

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	29	21	5	3	59	21	68
2	Kairat Almaty	28	19	6	3	57	20	63
3	FC Astana	28	15	7	6	46	29	52
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	29	15	6	8	45	37	51
5	FK Aktobe	28	13	6	9	42	35	45
6	FC Elimai Semey	28	12	8	8	40	38	44
7	Tobol Kostanay	29	12	5	12	40	39	41
8	FK Ulytau	29	9	8	12	27	35	35
9	FK Zhenys	29	8	9	12	30	39	33
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	29	9	6	14	31	42	33
11	FK Kyzylzhar	29	8	6	15	29	41	30
12	FK Atyrau	28	5	12	11	22	32	27
13	Zhetysu	29	6	8	15	29	47	26
14	Irtysh Pavlodar	28	6	8	14	26	42	26
15	FC Altai Semey	28	6	8	14	28	39	26
16	Kaisar Kyzylorda	28	4	12	12	24	39	24

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Astana	Kaisar Kyzylorda
FK Kaspyi Aktau	2-2 D	1-1 D
Tobol Kostanay	1-2 L	2-3 L
Ordabasy	0-1 L	1-4 L
FC Elimai Semey	4-0 W	1-1 D
FK Atyrau	3-2 W	1-0 W
FK Kyzylzhar	1-1 D	1-1 D
Okzhetpes Kokshetau	2-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Astana (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Astana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	2-2	10	3	D
14/10	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
10/10	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
17/09	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
12/09	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
06/09	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
30/08	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
16/08	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
09/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	9	4	W
02/08	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W

Kaisar Kyzylorda

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
11/10	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-4	4	3	L
18/09	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
12/09	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
06/09	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	2-3	7	10	L
25/08	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	2-3	11	5	L
15/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
26/07	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
18/07	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Astana vs Kaisar Kyzylorda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Astana win (64%). Probabilities: FC Astana 64%, draw 21%, Kaisar Kyzylorda 15%.

How many goals are expected in FC Astana vs Kaisar Kyzylorda?

The model expects 2.94 goals (FC Astana 2.05 · Kaisar Kyzylorda 0.88), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Astana vs Kaisar Kyzylorda?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.