Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: FK Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty

Team pages: FK Aktobe · Kairat Almaty

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

FK Aktobe1.15

Kairat Almaty1.69

1X2

25% 26% 49%

FK Aktobe Draw Kairat Almaty

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Aktobe 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWWDWL

Kairat Almaty 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLLWW

Head-to-head

FK Aktobe 2–4 Kairat Almaty (6 last)

Kairat Almaty1-0FK Aktobe
Kairat Almaty1-0FK Aktobe
FK Aktobe1-2Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty2-0FK Aktobe
FK Aktobe2-1Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty1-3FK Aktobe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Aktobe 1520 · Kairat Almaty 1541

	FK Aktobe	Draw	Kairat Almaty
Our model	25%	26%	49%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kairat Almaty: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Aktobe	Kairat Almaty
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	2.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
X	3.60 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.65
2	1.70 → 1.83▲	Pinn 2.08 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:35 +23’	4.00	3.60	1.70
17:40 +24’	3.60▼	3.40▼	1.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +169’	2.84	3.65	2.08

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Aktobe 2–0–4 Kairat Almaty

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kairat Almaty	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Aktobe
14/09/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kairat Almaty	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Aktobe
30/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	1-2 HT 0-0	Kairat Almaty
22/02/25 Kazakhstan Super Cup	Kairat Almaty	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Aktobe
04/10/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	2-1 HT 0-0	Kairat Almaty
20/04/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kairat Almaty	1-3 HT 0-1	FK Aktobe

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	28	21	4	3	58	20	67
2	Kairat Almaty	28	19	6	3	57	20	63
3	FC Astana	28	15	7	6	46	29	52
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	28	14	6	8	42	37	48
5	FK Aktobe	28	13	6	9	42	35	45
6	FC Elimai Semey	28	12	8	8	40	38	44
7	Tobol Kostanay	28	12	4	12	39	38	40
8	FK Ulytau	28	9	8	11	27	34	35
9	FK Kaspyi Aktau	28	9	6	13	31	39	33
10	FK Zhenys	28	8	8	12	29	38	32
11	FK Atyrau	28	5	12	11	22	32	27
12	FK Kyzylzhar	28	7	6	15	28	41	27
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	28	6	8	14	26	42	26
14	FC Altai Semey	28	6	8	14	28	39	26
15	Zhetysu	28	6	7	15	28	46	25
16	Kaisar Kyzylorda	28	4	12	12	24	39	24

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Aktobe	Kairat Almaty
Ordabasy	1-3 L	2-1 W
FC Elimai Semey	3-1 W	2-0 W
FK Ulytau	2-2 D	3-1 W
FK Kaspyi Aktau	2-1 W	3-0 W
FK Zhenys	1-0 W	3-0 W
Irtysh Pavlodar	1-2 L	5-0 W
FK Atyrau	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	7 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Kairat Almaty (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Aktobe

WLDWLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-3	1	6	L
10/10	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
18/09	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	2-2	7	5	D
12/09	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
05/09	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
30/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
15/08	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	9	4	W
09/08	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
01/08	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-3	8	6	L
25/07	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	8	8	W

Kairat Almaty

WWWWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	3-0	5-0	3	4	W
10/10	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
17/09	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
13/09	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-4	6	2	L
09/09	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
05/09	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	3-0	2	1	W
31/08	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-0	4	10	W
15/08	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
26/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
18/07	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	3-0	3-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kairat Almaty win (49%). Probabilities: FK Aktobe 25%, draw 26%, Kairat Almaty 49%.

How many goals are expected in FK Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty?

The model expects 2.84 goals (FK Aktobe 1.15 · Kairat Almaty 1.69), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.