Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 17/10, 14:00

Prediction: Tobol Kostanay vs FK Zhenys

Team pages: Tobol Kostanay · FK Zhenys

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Tobol Kostanay1.55

FK Zhenys1.12

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Tobol Kostanay Draw FK Zhenys

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tobol Kostanay 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLWWLW

FK Zhenys 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLDWWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Tobol Kostanay 1–3–2 FK Zhenys (6 last)

FK Zhenys1-0Tobol Kostanay
FK Zhenys1-1Tobol Kostanay
Tobol Kostanay2-2FK Zhenys
Tobol Kostanay2-1FK Zhenys
FK Zhenys0-0Tobol Kostanay
FK Zhenys2-1Tobol Kostanay

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tobol Kostanay 1510 · FK Zhenys 1476

	Tobol Kostanay	Draw	FK Zhenys
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Zhenys: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tobol Kostanay	FK Zhenys
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:42 +16’	1.95	3.25	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tobol Kostanay 1–3–2 FK Zhenys

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Zhenys	1-0 HT 0-0	Tobol Kostanay
29/08/25 Kazakhstan Cup	FK Zhenys	1-1 HT 0-0	Tobol Kostanay
29/06/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Tobol Kostanay	2-2 HT 1-2	FK Zhenys
25/06/25 Kazakhstan Cup	Tobol Kostanay	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Zhenys
08/03/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Zhenys	0-0 HT 0-0	Tobol Kostanay
04/10/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Zhenys	2-1 HT 2-0	Tobol Kostanay

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	27	20	4	3	55	19	64
2	Kairat Almaty	27	18	6	3	52	20	60
3	FC Astana	27	15	6	6	44	27	51
4	FK Aktobe	27	13	6	8	41	32	45
5	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	27	13	6	8	41	37	45
6	FC Elimai Semey	27	11	8	8	38	37	41
7	Tobol Kostanay	27	11	4	12	35	36	37
8	FK Ulytau	27	9	8	10	26	32	35
9	FK Zhenys	27	8	8	11	27	34	32
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	27	9	5	13	29	37	32
11	FK Kyzylzhar	27	7	6	14	28	40	27
12	FK Atyrau	27	5	11	11	21	31	26
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	27	6	8	13	26	37	26
14	FC Altai Semey	27	6	7	14	27	38	25
15	Kaisar Kyzylorda	27	4	12	11	23	37	24
16	Zhetysu	27	5	7	15	26	45	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tobol Kostanay	FK Zhenys
FC Elimai Semey	0-2 L	0-0 D
Kairat Almaty	4-1 W	0-3 L
FK Ulytau	3-1 W	1-1 D
FK Kaspyi Aktau	0-1 L	2-3 L
FK Atyrau	1-0 W	1-2 L
FK Kyzylzhar	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tobol Kostanay (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tobol Kostanay

DWLWWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
17/09	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-2	10	4	L
13/09	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	4-1	2	2	W
06/09	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
30/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
25/08	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
16/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
02/08	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
26/07	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
18/07	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D

FK Zhenys

DLDWWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	1-2	1	7	L
18/09	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
12/09	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
09/09	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
05/09	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
29/08	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
15/08	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	4-1	5	6	W
02/08	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
26/07	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	2-3	9	10	L
18/07	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tobol Kostanay vs FK Zhenys?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tobol Kostanay win (46%). Probabilities: Tobol Kostanay 46%, draw 28%, FK Zhenys 26%.

How many goals are expected in Tobol Kostanay vs FK Zhenys?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Tobol Kostanay 1.55 · FK Zhenys 1.12), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tobol Kostanay vs FK Zhenys?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.