Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Zhetysu vs Kaisar Kyzylorda

Team pages: Zhetysu · Kaisar Kyzylorda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Zhetysu1.28

Kaisar Kyzylorda1.13

1X2

39% 29% 32%

Zhetysu Draw Kaisar Kyzylorda

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Zhetysu 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWLLL

Kaisar Kyzylorda 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLLWDL

Head-to-head

Zhetysu 0–5–1 Kaisar Kyzylorda (6 last)

Kaisar Kyzylorda1-1Zhetysu
Zhetysu1-1Kaisar Kyzylorda
Kaisar Kyzylorda2-2Zhetysu
Kaisar Kyzylorda0-0Zhetysu
Zhetysu1-2Kaisar Kyzylorda
Kaisar Kyzylorda1-1Zhetysu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zhetysu 1416 · Kaisar Kyzylorda 1440

	Zhetysu	Draw	Kaisar Kyzylorda
Our model	38%	30%	31%
Market	39%	29%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zhetysu	Kaisar Kyzylorda
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.3	1.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.4	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.46 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:18 +32’	2.30	3.10	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +173’	2.46	3.01	2.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zhetysu 0–5–1 Kaisar Kyzylorda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kaisar Kyzylorda	1-1 HT 1-1	Zhetysu
16/09/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Zhetysu	1-1 HT 1-1	Kaisar Kyzylorda
31/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kaisar Kyzylorda	2-2 HT 0-0	Zhetysu
24/08/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kaisar Kyzylorda	0-0 HT 0-0	Zhetysu
22/06/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	Zhetysu	1-2 HT 1-1	Kaisar Kyzylorda
26/08/23 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kaisar Kyzylorda	1-1 HT 1-0	Zhetysu

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	27	20	4	3	55	19	64
2	Kairat Almaty	27	18	6	3	52	20	60
3	FC Astana	27	15	6	6	44	27	51
4	FK Aktobe	27	13	6	8	41	32	45
5	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	27	13	6	8	41	37	45
6	FC Elimai Semey	27	11	8	8	38	37	41
7	Tobol Kostanay	27	11	4	12	35	36	37
8	FK Ulytau	27	9	8	10	26	32	35
9	FK Zhenys	27	8	8	11	27	34	32
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	27	9	5	13	29	37	32
11	FK Kyzylzhar	27	7	6	14	28	40	27
12	FK Atyrau	27	5	11	11	21	31	26
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	27	6	8	13	26	37	26
14	FC Altai Semey	27	6	7	14	27	38	25
15	Kaisar Kyzylorda	27	4	12	11	23	37	24
16	Zhetysu	27	5	7	15	26	45	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zhetysu	Kaisar Kyzylorda
FK Kaspyi Aktau	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Elimai Semey	1-2 L	1-1 D
FK Ulytau	0-3 L	0-1 L
Ordabasy	0-4 L	1-4 L
FK Atyrau	1-1 D	1-0 W
FK Kyzylzhar	1-2 L	1-1 D
Okzhetpes Kokshetau	0-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 6 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Kaisar Kyzylorda (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zhetysu

LLDLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
18/09	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
12/09	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-2	0	0	L
05/09	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
29/08	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-3	8	7	L
15/08	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	1-4	0	6	L
08/08	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-4	1	7	L
01/08	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	9	D
25/07	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-2	8	11	L
18/07	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	7	L

Kaisar Kyzylorda

LDDLLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-4	4	3	L
18/09	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
12/09	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
06/09	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	2-3	7	10	L
25/08	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	2-3	11	5	L
15/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
26/07	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
18/07	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	9	D
12/07	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-1	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zhetysu vs Kaisar Kyzylorda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zhetysu win (39%). Probabilities: Zhetysu 39%, draw 29%, Kaisar Kyzylorda 32%.

How many goals are expected in Zhetysu vs Kaisar Kyzylorda?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Zhetysu 1.28 · Kaisar Kyzylorda 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zhetysu vs Kaisar Kyzylorda?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.