Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 17/10, 16:00
Prediction: FK Aktobe vs Ordabasy
Team pages: FK Aktobe · Ordabasy
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
FK Aktobe1.3
Ordabasy1.66
1X2
FK Aktobe
Draw
Ordabasy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Aktobe
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Ordabasy
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Aktobe
0–5–1
Ordabasy
(6 last)
- Ordabasy2-0FK Aktobe
- FK Aktobe2-2Ordabasy
- Ordabasy0-0FK Aktobe
- Ordabasy1-1FK Aktobe
- FK Aktobe0-0Ordabasy
- Ordabasy0-0FK Aktobe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Aktobe 1550 · Ordabasy 1601
| FK Aktobe | Draw | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ordabasy (rating 1550 vs 1601).
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Aktobe | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 2.5 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 80/10/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.4 | 1.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Aktobe 0–5–1 Ordabasy
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FK Aktobe |
| 26/10/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Ordabasy |
| 01/03/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Aktobe |
| 25/08/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FK Aktobe |
| 18/05/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ordabasy |
| 08/05/24 Kazakhstan Cup | Ordabasy | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Aktobe |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 19 | 64 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 52 | 20 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 44 | 27 | 51 |
| 4 | FK Aktobe | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 32 | 45 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 37 | 45 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 41 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 36 | 37 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 32 | 35 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 27 | 34 | 32 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 37 | 32 |
| 11 | FK Kyzylzhar | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 28 | 40 | 27 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 27 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 21 | 31 | 26 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 26 |
| 14 | FC Altai Semey | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 27 | 38 | 25 |
| 15 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 27 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 23 | 37 | 24 |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 45 | 22 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Aktobe | Ordabasy |
|---|---|---|
| FC Elimai Semey | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| FK Atyrau | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| FK Kyzylzhar | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| FC Altai Semey | 4-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Ordabasy (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Aktobe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/09 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 19/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 9 | W |
Ordabasy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 17/09 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 29/08 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 08/08 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Aktobe vs Ordabasy?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ordabasy win (45%). Probabilities: FK Aktobe 29%, draw 26%, Ordabasy 45%.
How many goals are expected in FK Aktobe vs Ordabasy?
The model expects 2.96 goals (FK Aktobe 1.3 · Ordabasy 1.66), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Aktobe vs Ordabasy?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.