Prediction: Vitoria vs Gremio
- Gremio2-0Vitoria
- Gremio3-1Vitoria
- Vitoria1-1Gremio
- Vitoria1-1Gremio
- Gremio2-0Vitoria
- Gremio1-0Vitoria
| Vitoria | Draw | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Gremio: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vitoria | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.1 | 2.2 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.4 | 5.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria 0–2–4 Gremio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/26 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Vitoria |
| 28/09/25 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Vitoria |
| 27/04/25 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Gremio |
| 05/12/24 Brazil Serie A | Vitoria | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Gremio |
| 21/07/24 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Vitoria |
| 04/08/21 Copa do Brasil | Gremio | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Vitoria |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 52 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 48 | 21 | 48 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 25 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 39 | 32 | 42 |
| 5 | EC Bahia | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 37 | 30 | 40 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 36 | 39 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 37 |
| 8 | Atletico Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 36 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 25 | 35 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 32 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 28 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 37 | 40 | 30 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 37 | 29 |
| 14 | Santos | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 36 | 29 |
| 15 | Gremio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 32 | 28 |
| 16 | Mirassol | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 37 | 25 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 39 | 25 |
| 18 | Internacional | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 26 | 31 | 25 |
| 19 | Remo | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 42 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | 14 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vitoria | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| EC Bahia | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Flamengo | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Santos | 1-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Gremio (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vitoria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 16/08 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 30/07 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 27/07 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/07 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Gremio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 26/07 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 18/07 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 11/05 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vitoria vs Gremio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Vitoria win (46%). Probabilities: Vitoria 46%, draw 29%, Gremio 25%.
How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Gremio?
The model expects 2.33 goals (Vitoria 1.38 · Gremio 0.96), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Gremio?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.