Prediction: Corinthians vs Chapecoense
Team pages: Corinthians · Chapecoense
- Chapecoense0-0Corinthians
- Corinthians1-0Chapecoense
- Chapecoense0-1Corinthians
- Chapecoense0-1Corinthians
- Corinthians1-0Chapecoense
- Corinthians2-0Chapecoense
| Corinthians | Draw | Chapecoense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 23% | 11% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Corinthians (rating 1506 vs 1462).
- H2H favours Corinthians: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Corinthians | Chapecoense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5 | 0.8 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Corinthians 5–1–0 Chapecoense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Brazil Serie A | Chapecoense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Corinthians |
| 02/11/21 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Chapecoense |
| 09/07/21 Brazil Serie A | Chapecoense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Corinthians |
| 03/10/19 Brazil Serie A | Chapecoense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Corinthians |
| 01/05/19 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Chapecoense |
| 25/04/19 Copa do Brasil | Corinthians | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Chapecoense |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 45 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 25 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 39 | 32 | 42 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 36 | 39 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 37 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 36 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 25 | 35 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 31 | 34 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 24 | 32 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 28 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 37 | 30 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 37 | 29 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 36 | 26 |
| 15 | Gremio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 31 | 25 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 39 | 25 |
| 17 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 25 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 36 | 24 |
| 19 | Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 39 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 46 | 14 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Corinthians | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Cruzeiro | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| EC Bahia | 1-1 D | 3-3 D |
| Remo | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Sao Paulo | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Corinthians (1 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Corinthians
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 14 | 4 | L |
| 17/08 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 26/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 24/07 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 8 | W |
Chapecoense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 23/07 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Corinthians win (67%). Probabilities: Corinthians 67%, draw 22%, Chapecoense 12%.
How many goals are expected in Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Corinthians 1.89 · Chapecoense 0.65), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Chapecoense?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.