Football · Brazil Serie A · 06/09, 02:00

Prediction: Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama

Team pages: Fluminense · Vasco da Gama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Fluminense1.55

Vasco da Gama0.83

1X2

54% 27% 19%

Fluminense Draw Vasco da Gama

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Fluminense 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WLDDDDDWWD

Vasco da Gama 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDDLLW

Head-to-head

Fluminense 2–2–2 Vasco da Gama (6 last)

Fluminense1-3Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama0-0Fluminense
Vasco da Gama3-2Fluminense
Fluminense1-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama0-1Fluminense
Fluminense1-0Vasco da Gama

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fluminense 1516 · Vasco da Gama 1518

	Fluminense	Draw	Vasco da Gama
Our model	53%	28%	19%
Market	54%	27%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fluminense	Vasco da Gama
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.9	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.89 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +5’	1.73	3.50	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:36	1.92	3.46	4.19
01:34	1.89▼	3.49▲	4.27▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fluminense 2–2–2 Vasco da Gama

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/08/26 Copa do Brasil	Fluminense	1-3 HT 0-1	Vasco da Gama
01/08/26 Copa do Brasil	Vasco da Gama	0-0 HT 0-0	Fluminense
19/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	3-2 HT 0-1	Fluminense
01/03/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca	Fluminense	1-1 HT 0-1	Vasco da Gama
22/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca	Vasco da Gama	0-1 HT 0-1	Fluminense
15/12/25 Copa do Brasil	Fluminense	1-0 HT 1-0	Vasco da Gama

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	25	13	6	6	37	25	45
4	Fluminense	25	11	9	5	39	32	42
5	Cruzeiro	25	11	6	8	35	36	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Atletico Mineiro	24	10	6	8	32	28	36
8	Bragantino	24	10	5	9	29	25	35
9	Coritiba	24	9	7	8	30	31	34
10	Corinthians	24	8	8	8	26	24	32
11	Sao Paulo	24	8	6	10	29	28	30
12	Botafogo	23	8	6	9	37	37	30
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	29
14	Santos	23	6	8	9	33	36	26
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Vasco da Gama	24	6	7	11	27	39	25
17	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
18	Mirassol	23	6	6	11	26	36	24
19	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
20	Chapecoense	23	2	8	13	24	46	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fluminense	Vasco da Gama
Athletico Paranaense	3-3 D	1-0 W
Palmeiras	3-2 W	1-4 L
EC Bahia	0-0 D	0-0 D
Bragantino	1-1 D	0-3 L
Cruzeiro	1-1 D	3-1 W
Mirassol	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vasco da Gama (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fluminense

WLDDDDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	3	4	D
22/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
15/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	5	7	W
09/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
30/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
26/07	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
18/07	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	11	9	D
01/06	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
24/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
17/05	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	3	6	W

Vasco da Gama

WLLLLDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	11	3	W
23/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
16/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
09/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
26/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
31/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
25/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
16/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-4	4	5	L
11/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fluminense win (54%). Probabilities: Fluminense 54%, draw 27%, Vasco da Gama 19%.

How many goals are expected in Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Fluminense 1.55 · Vasco da Gama 0.83), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.