Football · Brazil Serie A · 05/09, 23:30

Prediction: Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro

Team pages: Sao Paulo · Atletico Mineiro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Sao Paulo1.25

Atletico Mineiro0.93

1X2

43% 30% 27%

Sao Paulo Draw Atletico Mineiro

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Paulo 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDLDLW

Atletico Mineiro 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWDWDW

Head-to-head

Sao Paulo 1–3–2 Atletico Mineiro (6 last)

Atletico Mineiro1-0Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2-0Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro0-0Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2-2Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro0-0Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo0-1Atletico Mineiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Paulo 1478 · Atletico Mineiro 1587

	Sao Paulo	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
Our model	42%	31%	26%
Market	43%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Mineiro (rating 1478 vs 1587).
H2H favours Atletico Mineiro: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Paulo	Atletico Mineiro
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.7	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.17
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.94 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:19 +7’	2.15	3.20	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:25 +1’	2.15	2.96	3.90
02:54 +4’	2.17▲	2.98▲	3.94▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo 1–3–2 Atletico Mineiro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
25/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro
06/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	0-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
24/11/24 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-2 HT 2-2	Atletico Mineiro
13/09/24 Copa do Brasil	Atletico Mineiro	0-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
29/08/24 Copa do Brasil	Sao Paulo	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	24	13	5	6	34	22	44
4	Fluminense	24	11	8	5	36	29	41
5	Cruzeiro	25	11	6	8	35	36	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Atletico Mineiro	24	10	6	8	32	28	36
8	Bragantino	24	10	5	9	29	25	35
9	Coritiba	24	9	7	8	30	31	34
10	Corinthians	24	8	8	8	26	24	32
11	Sao Paulo	24	8	6	10	29	28	30
12	Botafogo	23	8	6	9	37	37	30
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	29
14	Santos	23	6	8	9	33	36	26
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Vasco da Gama	24	6	7	11	27	39	25
17	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
18	Mirassol	23	6	6	11	26	36	24
19	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
20	Chapecoense	23	2	8	13	24	46	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Paulo	Atletico Mineiro
Gremio	1-2 L	3-0 W
Remo	0-1 L	2-2 D
Botafogo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Corinthians	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Mineiro (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Paulo

LLDLLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	9	5	W
23/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
08/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
26/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	1	L
01/06	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
17/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
10/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	7	8	L

Atletico Mineiro

DWLWDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
16/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	8	6	W
08/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
27/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
24/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
16/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	5	1	W
10/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo win (43%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo 43%, draw 30%, Atletico Mineiro 27%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Sao Paulo 1.25 · Atletico Mineiro 0.93), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Atletico Mineiro?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.