Football · Brazil Serie A · 06/09, 16:00

Prediction: Coritiba vs Mirassol

Team pages: Coritiba · Mirassol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Coritiba1.38

Mirassol1.11

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Coritiba Draw Mirassol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Coritiba 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLDLWDW

Mirassol 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWDWLLD

Head-to-head

Coritiba 1–2 Mirassol (3 last)

Mirassol0-1Coritiba
Mirassol4-1Coritiba
Coritiba0-1Mirassol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Coritiba 1512 · Mirassol 1463

	Coritiba	Draw	Mirassol
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coritiba (rating 1512 vs 1463).
H2H favours Mirassol: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Coritiba	Mirassol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.8	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:38 +4’	2.25	3.20	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Coritiba 1–0–2 Mirassol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	0-1 HT 0-0	Coritiba
06/11/24 Brazil Serie B	Mirassol	4-1 HT 2-1	Coritiba
20/07/24 Brazil Serie B	Coritiba	0-1 HT 0-0	Mirassol

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	25	13	6	6	37	25	45
4	Fluminense	25	11	9	5	39	32	42
5	Cruzeiro	25	11	6	8	35	36	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Atletico Mineiro	24	10	6	8	32	28	36
8	Bragantino	24	10	5	9	29	25	35
9	Coritiba	24	9	7	8	30	31	34
10	Corinthians	24	8	8	8	26	24	32
11	Sao Paulo	24	8	6	10	29	28	30
12	Botafogo	23	8	6	9	37	37	30
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	29
14	Santos	23	6	8	9	33	36	26
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Vasco da Gama	24	6	7	11	27	39	25
17	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
18	Mirassol	23	6	6	11	26	36	24
19	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
20	Chapecoense	23	2	8	13	24	46	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Coritiba	Mirassol
Chapecoense	2-1 W	1-1 D
Cruzeiro	0-1 L	1-3 L
Flamengo	0-3 L	1-5 L
Santos	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Coritiba (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Coritiba

DWWLLDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
16/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
09/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
31/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/07	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
30/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
26/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	3-2	3	3	W
17/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-0	3	6	W
09/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	3	4	D

Mirassol

DLWLWDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
16/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-5	4	3	L
09/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	1	4	L
30/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
26/07	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
18/07	Gremio Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
30/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
24/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
10/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	8	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Coritiba vs Mirassol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Coritiba win (42%). Probabilities: Coritiba 42%, draw 29%, Mirassol 29%.

How many goals are expected in Coritiba vs Mirassol?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Coritiba 1.38 · Mirassol 1.11), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Mirassol?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.