Football · Brazil Serie A · 05/09, 21:00

Prediction: Bragantino vs EC Bahia

Team pages: Bragantino · EC Bahia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

Bragantino1.29

EC Bahia0.98

1X2

43% 30% 28%

Bragantino Draw EC Bahia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Bragantino 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDLDWL

EC Bahia 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWDDDDDW

Head-to-head

Bragantino 1–5 EC Bahia (6 last)

EC Bahia2-0Bragantino
EC Bahia2-1Bragantino
Bragantino0-3EC Bahia
Bragantino2-1EC Bahia
EC Bahia1-0Bragantino
EC Bahia4-0Bragantino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bragantino 1507 · EC Bahia 1558

	Bragantino	Draw	EC Bahia
Our model	42%	31%	27%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Bahia (rating 1507 vs 1558).
H2H favours EC Bahia: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bragantino	EC Bahia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.7	2.9 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:19 +6’	2.15	3.25	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bragantino 1–0–5 EC Bahia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	2-0 HT 2-0	Bragantino
02/11/25 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	2-1 HT 0-1	Bragantino
13/06/25 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	0-3 HT 0-2	EC Bahia
01/09/24 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	2-1 HT 0-0	EC Bahia
12/05/24 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-0 HT 1-0	Bragantino
20/08/23 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	4-0 HT 2-0	Bragantino

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	24	13	5	6	34	22	44
4	Fluminense	24	11	8	5	36	29	41
5	Cruzeiro	25	11	6	8	35	36	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Atletico Mineiro	24	10	6	8	32	28	36
8	Bragantino	24	10	5	9	29	25	35
9	Coritiba	24	9	7	8	30	31	34
10	Corinthians	24	8	8	8	26	24	32
11	Sao Paulo	24	8	6	10	29	28	30
12	Botafogo	23	8	6	9	37	37	30
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	29
14	Santos	23	6	8	9	33	36	26
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Vasco da Gama	24	6	7	11	27	39	25
17	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
18	Mirassol	23	6	6	11	26	36	24
19	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
20	Chapecoense	23	2	8	13	24	46	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bragantino	EC Bahia
Gremio	1-0 W	1-1 D
Corinthians	0-2 L	1-1 D
Coritiba	0-0 D	2-3 L
Fluminense	1-1 D	0-0 D
Vasco da Gama	3-0 W	0-0 D
Vitoria	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bragantino (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bragantino

LWWWDDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
23/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
09/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
26/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
18/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	9	D
31/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	6	6	W
25/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
17/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
10/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	3	5	L

EC Bahia

DLWWDDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
16/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
09/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
30/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
26/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
22/07	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
18/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
30/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	10	9	W
26/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
17/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	7	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bragantino vs EC Bahia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bragantino win (43%). Probabilities: Bragantino 43%, draw 30%, EC Bahia 28%.

How many goals are expected in Bragantino vs EC Bahia?

The model expects 2.27 goals (Bragantino 1.29 · EC Bahia 0.98), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bragantino vs EC Bahia?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.