Football · Paraguay Women League · 26/08, 18:00
Prediction: Deportivo Recoleta (W) vs Cerro Porteno (W)
Team pages: Deportivo Recoleta (W) · Cerro Porteno (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.91Total
Deportivo Recoleta (W)0.95
Cerro Porteno (W)2.95
1X2
Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Draw
Cerro Porteno (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
0-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Recoleta (W)
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Cerro Porteno (W)
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Recoleta (W)
0–3
Cerro Porteno (W)
(3 last)
- Cerro Porteno (W)7-0Deportivo Recoleta (W)
- Deportivo Recoleta (W)0-4Cerro Porteno (W)
- Cerro Porteno (W)2-1Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1432 · Cerro Porteno (W) 1563
| Deportivo Recoleta (W) | Draw | Cerro Porteno (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 9% | 14% | 77% |
| Market | 3% | 5% | 92% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.91 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro Porteno (W) (rating 1432 vs 1563).
- H2H favours Cerro Porteno (W): 3-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Recoleta (W) | Cerro Porteno (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.8 | 3.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 67/11/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 2.3 | 3 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 0–0–3 Cerro Porteno (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Paraguay Women League | Cerro Porteno (W) | 7-0 HT 3-0 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) |
| 24/05/25 Paraguay Women League | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Cerro Porteno (W) |
| 10/03/25 Paraguay Women League | Cerro Porteno (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) |
Standings · Paraguay Women League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Limpeno (W) | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 80 | 9 | 47 |
| 2 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 66 | 4 | 47 |
| 3 | Club Guarani (W) | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 21 | 39 |
| 4 | Cerro Porteno (W) | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 65 | 13 | 36 |
| 5 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 39 | 28 |
| 6 | Nacional-Humaita (W) | 19 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 41 | 28 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 24 | 23 |
| 8 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 41 | 20 |
| 9 | 2 de Mayo (W) | 18 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 56 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio Nu (W) | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 53 | 10 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 62 | 7 |
| 12 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 17 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 78 | 3 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | Cerro Porteno (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional-Humaita (W) | 0-2 L | 4-0 W |
| 2 de Mayo (W) | 0-3 L | 6-0 W |
| Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 2-1 W | 6-0 W |
| Olimpia Asuncion (W) | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Libertad Limpeno (W) | 0-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Rubio Nu (W) | 1-1 D | 6-0 W |
| Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Club Guarani (W) | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 6 L | 4 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerro Porteno (W) (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Recoleta (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 16/08 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 10/08 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/08 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 02/08 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 20/07 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 15/07 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 28/06 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
Cerro Porteno (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
– | 5-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 27/07 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 20/07 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 29/06 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Recoleta (W) vs Cerro Porteno (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cerro Porteno (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Deportivo Recoleta (W) 6%, draw 9%, Cerro Porteno (W) 85%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Recoleta (W) vs Cerro Porteno (W)?
The model expects 3.91 goals (Deportivo Recoleta (W) 0.95 · Cerro Porteno (W) 2.95), with a 56% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Recoleta (W) vs Cerro Porteno (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.