Football · Paraguay Women League · 03/09, 19:00

Prediction: Olimpia Asuncion (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Team pages: Olimpia Asuncion (W) · Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.35Total

Olimpia Asuncion (W)3.18

Deportivo Recoleta (W)1.18

1X2

86% 8% 6%

Olimpia Asuncion (W) Draw Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Markets

Under 5.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpia Asuncion (W) 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Deportivo Recoleta (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWLLLW

Head-to-head

Olimpia Asuncion (W) 3–0 Deportivo Recoleta (W) (3 last)

Deportivo Recoleta (W)0-2Olimpia Asuncion (W)
Olimpia Asuncion (W)8-0Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Deportivo Recoleta (W)0-8Olimpia Asuncion (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpia Asuncion (W) 1642 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1454

	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	Draw	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	95%	3%	2%

Estimated total (ours) 4.35 goals · Bet365 line 5.5 · -1.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia Asuncion (W) (rating 1642 vs 1454).
H2H favours Olimpia Asuncion (W): 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 0.3	0.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	40/0/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 7.8	1.5 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.7	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.01

X29.00

251.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.75)1.82

2 (+4.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 5.51.80

Under 5.52.00

Diff.: 2.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.01 → 1.01▼	Bet365 1.01
X	29.00 → 29.00	Bet365 29.00
2	51.00 → 51.00	Bet365 51.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:40 +9’	1.01	29.00	51.00
23:50 +2’	1.01▼	29.00	51.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia Asuncion (W) 3–0–0 Deportivo Recoleta (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/08/26 Paraguay Women League	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Olimpia Asuncion (W)
24/08/25 Paraguay Women League	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	8-0 HT 5-0	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
19/04/25 Paraguay Women League	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	0-8 HT 0-5	Olimpia Asuncion (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	20	17	2	1	89	9	53
2	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	19	17	2	0	75	4	53
3	Cerro Porteno (W)	21	14	3	4	73	15	45
4	Club Guarani (W)	21	13	4	4	42	24	43
5	Nacional-Humaita (W)	21	10	2	9	35	43	32
6	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	21	10	1	10	55	42	31
7	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	19	8	2	9	28	31	26
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	20	7	2	11	23	43	23
9	2 de Mayo (W)	20	5	1	14	31	61	16
10	Rubio Nu (W)	19	3	4	12	14	57	13
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	21	2	4	15	14	71	10
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	20	0	3	17	11	90	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Sportivo Ameliano (W)	8-0 W	2-0 W
Libertad Limpeno (W)	1-0 W	0-4 L
Cerro Porteno (W)	3-2 W	0-2 L
Rubio Nu (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Nacional-Humaita (W)	6-0 W	0-2 L
Sportivo Trinidense (W)	4-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpia Asuncion (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olimpia Asuncion (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
27/08	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	8-0	6	3	W
22/08	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
15/08	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	3-2	2	3	W
09/08	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	2-0	13	4	W
05/08	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	2-0	10	0	W
02/08	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	4-0	6-0	7	5	W
29/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	4-0	10	6	W
26/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	2-0	11	2	W
22/07	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	4-1	7	7	W

Deportivo Recoleta (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	2-0	8	6	W
26/08	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
23/08	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
16/08	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
10/08	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
05/08	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-2	1	0	L
02/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-1	2-1	1	4	W
25/07	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-4	0	5	L
20/07	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
15/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-3	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpia Asuncion (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpia Asuncion (W) win (86%). Probabilities: Olimpia Asuncion (W) 86%, draw 8%, Deportivo Recoleta (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpia Asuncion (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

The model expects 4.35 goals (Olimpia Asuncion (W) 3.18 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1.18), with a 59% chance of under 5.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpia Asuncion (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.