Football · Paraguay Women League · 30/08, 22:15

Prediction: Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Olimpia Asuncion (W)

Team pages: Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) · Olimpia Asuncion (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.33Total

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)1.17

Olimpia Asuncion (W)3.17

1X2

6% 9% 85%

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Draw Olimpia Asuncion (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Olimpia Asuncion (W) 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 0–1 Olimpia Asuncion (W) (1 last)

Olimpia Asuncion (W)7-0Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1525 · Olimpia Asuncion (W) 1638

	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	Draw	Olimpia Asuncion (W)
Our model	10%	14%	76%
Market	2%	5%	93%

Estimated total (ours) 4.33 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia Asuncion (W) (rating 1525 vs 1638).
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	Olimpia Asuncion (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 1.6	3.7 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.3	4.3 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

151.00

X19.00

21.02

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+4)1.82

2 (-4)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.88

Under 4.51.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	51.00 → 51.00	Bet365 51.00
X	19.00 → 19.00	Bet365 19.00
2	1.02 → 1.02	Bet365 1.02

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
23:32 +6’	51.00	19.00	1.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 0–0–1 Olimpia Asuncion (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Paraguay Women League	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	7-0 HT 2-0	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	19	16	2	1	82	9	50
2	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	18	16	2	0	74	4	50
3	Club Guarani (W)	19	12	4	3	40	22	40
4	Cerro Porteno (W)	19	12	3	4	67	13	39
5	Nacional-Humaita (W)	20	9	2	9	33	42	29
6	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	19	9	1	9	53	41	28
7	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	17	8	2	7	25	25	26
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	19	6	2	11	21	43	20
9	2 de Mayo (W)	19	5	1	13	31	60	16
10	Rubio Nu (W)	18	2	4	12	13	57	10
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	19	2	4	13	14	62	10
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	18	0	3	15	11	86	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	Olimpia Asuncion (W)
Libertad Limpeno (W)	0-2 L	1-0 W
Rubio Nu (W)	7-0 W	2-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense (W)	3-1 W	4-0 W
Club Guarani (W)	1-4 L	4-1 W
Deportivo Recoleta (W)	1-2 L	2-0 W
Sportivo Ameliano (W)	6-2 W	8-0 W
Cerro Porteno (W)	2-2 D	3-2 W
Nacional-Humaita (W)	4-1 W	6-0 W
2 de Mayo (W)	3-1 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 3 L	9 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpia Asuncion (W) (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
23/08	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	4-0	7-0	5	3	W
16/08	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
09/08	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	1-4	6	1	L
02/08	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	1-2	1-2	15	4	L
25/07	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-2	6-2	11	4	W
20/07	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-2	2-2	9	3	D
05/07	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
28/06	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
31/05	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	4-1	6-1	2	5	W

Olimpia Asuncion (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	8-0	6	3	W
22/08	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
15/08	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	3-2	2	3	W
09/08	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	2-0	13	4	W
05/08	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	2-0	10	0	W
02/08	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	4-0	6-0	7	5	W
29/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	4-0	10	6	W
26/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	2-0	11	2	W
22/07	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	4-1	7	7	W
18/07	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	5-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Olimpia Asuncion (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Olimpia Asuncion (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 6%, draw 9%, Olimpia Asuncion (W) 85%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Olimpia Asuncion (W)?

The model expects 4.33 goals (Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1.17 · Olimpia Asuncion (W) 3.17), with a 53% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Olimpia Asuncion (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.