Football · Paraguay Women League · 30/08, 20:00

Prediction: Sportivo Ameliano (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Team pages: Sportivo Ameliano (W) · Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

Sportivo Ameliano (W)1.38

Deportivo Recoleta (W)2.64

1X2

17% 19% 63%

Sportivo Ameliano (W) Draw Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Ameliano (W) 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Deportivo Recoleta (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sportivo Ameliano (W) 1–1–2 Deportivo Recoleta (W) (4 last)

Deportivo Recoleta (W)6-2Sportivo Ameliano (W)
Sportivo Ameliano (W)2-2Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Sportivo Ameliano (W)0-3Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Deportivo Recoleta (W)1-2Sportivo Ameliano (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Ameliano (W) 1389 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 1448

	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	Draw	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Our model	18%	19%	64%
Market	17%	20%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Recoleta (W) (rating 1389 vs 1448).
H2H favours Deportivo Recoleta (W): 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 4.4	0.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 2.1	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 3.8	1.4 / 2.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.50

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.80

2 (-1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:30 +4’	5.25	4.50	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Ameliano (W) 1–1–2 Deportivo Recoleta (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Paraguay Women League	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	6-2 HT 2-0	Sportivo Ameliano (W)
14/09/25 Paraguay Copa EFE Women	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
13/06/25 Paraguay Women League	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
24/03/25 Paraguay Women League	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Sportivo Ameliano (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	19	16	2	1	82	9	50
2	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	18	16	2	0	74	4	50
3	Club Guarani (W)	19	12	4	3	40	22	40
4	Cerro Porteno (W)	19	12	3	4	67	13	39
5	Nacional-Humaita (W)	20	9	2	9	33	42	29
6	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	19	9	1	9	53	41	28
7	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	17	8	2	7	25	25	26
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	19	6	2	11	21	43	20
9	2 de Mayo (W)	19	5	1	13	31	60	16
10	Rubio Nu (W)	18	2	4	12	13	57	10
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	19	2	4	13	14	62	10
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	18	0	3	15	11	86	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	Deportivo Recoleta (W)
Olimpia Asuncion (W)	0-8 L	0-2 L
Cerro Porteno (W)	0-5 L	0-2 L
Nacional-Humaita (W)	0-4 L	0-2 L
2 de Mayo (W)	2-5 L	0-3 L
Sportivo Luqueno (W)	0-0 D	2-1 W
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	2-6 L	2-1 W
Libertad Limpeno (W)	0-11 L	0-4 L
Rubio Nu (W)	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sportivo Trinidense (W)	2-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 7 L	2 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Recoleta (W) (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Ameliano (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-8	0	3	L
23/08	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	–	0-5	1	4	L
16/08	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	0-4	0-4	2	6	L
08/08	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	0-3	2-5	7	3	L
03/08	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
25/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-2	2-6	7	4	L
19/07	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-7	0-11	2	3	L
16/07	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
13/07	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
28/06	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	2-3	3	6	L

Deportivo Recoleta (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
23/08	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
16/08	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
10/08	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
05/08	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-2	1	0	L
02/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-1	2-1	1	4	W
25/07	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-4	0	5	L
20/07	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
15/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
12/07	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-0	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Ameliano (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo Recoleta (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Sportivo Ameliano (W) 17%, draw 19%, Deportivo Recoleta (W) 63%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Ameliano (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

The model expects 4.02 goals (Sportivo Ameliano (W) 1.38 · Deportivo Recoleta (W) 2.64), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Ameliano (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.