Football · Paraguay Women League · 26/08, 20:00
Prediction: Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
Team pages: Libertad Limpeno (W) · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.41Total
Libertad Limpeno (W)3.2
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)1.2
1X2
Libertad Limpeno (W)
Draw
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Libertad Limpeno (W)
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Libertad Limpeno (W)
1–0
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
(1 last)
- Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)1-3Libertad Limpeno (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Libertad Limpeno (W) 1623 · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1526
| Libertad Limpeno (W) | Draw | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 90% | 7% | 3% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Libertad Limpeno (W) (rating 1623 vs 1526).
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Libertad Limpeno (W) | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 5 / 0.5 | 3.3 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 78/11/11% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.3 | 3.1 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.4 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertad Limpeno (W) 1–0–0 Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Paraguay Women League | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Libertad Limpeno (W) |
Standings · Paraguay Women League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Limpeno (W) | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 80 | 9 | 47 |
| 2 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 66 | 4 | 47 |
| 3 | Club Guarani (W) | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 21 | 39 |
| 4 | Cerro Porteno (W) | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 65 | 13 | 36 |
| 5 | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 39 | 28 |
| 6 | Nacional-Humaita (W) | 19 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 41 | 28 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 24 | 23 |
| 8 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 41 | 20 |
| 9 | 2 de Mayo (W) | 18 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 56 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio Nu (W) | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 53 | 10 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 62 | 7 |
| 12 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 17 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 78 | 3 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Libertad Limpeno (W) | Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Olimpia Asuncion (W) | 0-1 L | 0-7 L |
| Rubio Nu (W) | 6-2 W | 7-0 W |
| Sportivo Trinidense (W) | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Club Guarani (W) | 3-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Deportivo Recoleta (W) | 4-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Sportivo Ameliano (W) | 11-0 W | 6-2 W |
| Cerro Porteno (W) | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Nacional-Humaita (W) | 3-1 W | 4-1 W |
| 2 de Mayo (W) | 11-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Sportivo Luqueno (W) | 9-0 W | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 9 W 0 D 1 L | 6 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Libertad Limpeno (W) (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Libertad Limpeno (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 17/08 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
– | 6-2 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 09/08 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 19/07 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
7-0 | 11-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/07 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-0 | 11-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
6-0 | 9-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League |
4-0 | 7-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 15 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League |
2-2 | 6-2 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 20/07 | Cerro Porteno (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | 2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League |
4-1 | 6-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League |
0-2 | 0-7 | 0 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Libertad Limpeno (W) win (84%). Probabilities: Libertad Limpeno (W) 84%, draw 10%, Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)?
The model expects 4.41 goals (Libertad Limpeno (W) 3.2 · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1.2), with a 54% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Libertad Limpeno (W) vs Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.