Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 30/08, 21:00

Prediction: Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion

Team pages: Cerro Porteno · Libertad Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Cerro Porteno1.35

Libertad Asuncion1.01

1X2

43% 29% 27%

Cerro Porteno Draw Libertad Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cerro Porteno 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Libertad Asuncion 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cerro Porteno 2–3–1 Libertad Asuncion (6 last)

Libertad Asuncion2-3Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno1-1Libertad Asuncion
Cerro Porteno1-0Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion1-1Cerro Porteno
Libertad Asuncion1-0Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno2-2Libertad Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cerro Porteno 1500 · Libertad Asuncion 1524

	Cerro Porteno	Draw	Libertad Asuncion
Our model	43%	30%	27%
Market	44%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cerro Porteno: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cerro Porteno	Libertad Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.3	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.10

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.06
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.31
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.58 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +11’	2.05	3.10	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:21 +1’	2.09	3.22	3.60
09:30	2.06▼	3.31▲	3.58▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro Porteno 2–3–1 Libertad Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	2-3 HT 1-1	Cerro Porteno
25/01/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	1-1 HT 1-0	Libertad Asuncion
23/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	1-0 HT 1-0	Libertad Asuncion
31/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-1	Cerro Porteno
06/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	1-0 HT 1-0	Cerro Porteno
27/01/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	2-2 HT 0-0	Libertad Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cerro Porteno	Libertad Asuncion
Olimpia Asuncion	1-2 L	1-0 W
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-0 W	1-0 W
Sportivo Luqueno	3-0 W	2-1 W
2 de Mayo	1-2 L	0-0 D
Sportivo Trinidense	1-2 L	2-1 W
Guarani Asuncion	0-0 D	1-2 L
Deportivo Recoleta	1-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Libertad Asuncion (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cerro Porteno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
16/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
08/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
01/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
28/07	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
24/07	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
24/05	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
15/05	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-3	4	1	L
12/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
03/05	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	2	4	L

Libertad Asuncion

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
16/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
02/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
30/07	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
26/07	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
24/05	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
14/05	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
11/05	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
02/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	5-0	2	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerro Porteno win (43%). Probabilities: Cerro Porteno 43%, draw 29%, Libertad Asuncion 27%.

How many goals are expected in Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Cerro Porteno 1.35 · Libertad Asuncion 1.01), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.