Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 07/09, 23:30

Prediction: Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion

Team pages: Cerro Porteno · Nacional Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Cerro Porteno1.11

Nacional Asuncion0.94

1X2

39% 32% 30%

Cerro Porteno Draw Nacional Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Cerro Porteno 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLWLDW

Nacional Asuncion 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWLDDWWW

Head-to-head

Cerro Porteno 3–2–1 Nacional Asuncion (6 last)

Nacional Asuncion0-0Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno0-2Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion1-2Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno0-0Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion1-3Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno3-1Nacional Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cerro Porteno 1502 · Nacional Asuncion 1572

	Cerro Porteno	Draw	Nacional Asuncion
Our model	38%	33%	29%
Market	39%	31%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Asuncion (rating 1502 vs 1572).
H2H favours Cerro Porteno: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cerro Porteno	Nacional Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.7	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X2.90

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.56 ★
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +14’	2.30	2.90	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:35	2.54	2.81	3.07
02:23	2.56▲	2.84▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro Porteno 3–2–1 Nacional Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	0-0 HT 0-0	Cerro Porteno
16/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	0-2 HT 0-1	Nacional Asuncion
28/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-2 HT 1-2	Cerro Porteno
08/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	0-0 HT 0-0	Nacional Asuncion
16/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-3 HT 1-2	Cerro Porteno
02/02/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	3-1 HT 1-0	Nacional Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cerro Porteno	Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta	3-1 W	2-3 L
Libertad Asuncion	1-1 D	3-0 W
Olimpia Asuncion	1-2 L	2-0 W
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-0 W	3-0 W
Sportivo Ameliano	0-1 L	1-1 D
Sportivo Luqueno	3-0 W	2-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense	1-2 L	1-1 D
Rubio Nu	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Asuncion (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cerro Porteno

LWLLWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	3-0	3-1	3	2	W
30/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
23/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
16/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
08/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
01/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
28/07	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
24/07	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
24/05	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
15/05	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-3	4	1	L

Nacional Asuncion

DWDWLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
28/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
24/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
15/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
09/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
03/08	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
29/07	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
25/07	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
24/05	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
15/05	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	10	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerro Porteno win (39%). Probabilities: Cerro Porteno 39%, draw 32%, Nacional Asuncion 30%.

How many goals are expected in Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Cerro Porteno 1.11 · Nacional Asuncion 0.94), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.