Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 07/09, 21:00

Prediction: Guarani Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta

Team pages: Guarani Asuncion · Deportivo Recoleta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Guarani Asuncion1.71

Deportivo Recoleta1.22

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Guarani Asuncion Draw Deportivo Recoleta

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Guarani Asuncion 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDLDDD

Deportivo Recoleta 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Guarani Asuncion 4–2 Deportivo Recoleta (6 last)

Deportivo Recoleta2-1Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion3-1Deportivo Recoleta
Guarani Asuncion2-1Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta2-3Guarani Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta0-3Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion1-3Deportivo Recoleta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guarani Asuncion 1502 · Deportivo Recoleta 1450

	Guarani Asuncion	Draw	Deportivo Recoleta
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guarani Asuncion (rating 1502 vs 1450).
H2H favours Guarani Asuncion: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guarani Asuncion	Deportivo Recoleta
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	1.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.1	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.92
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.51
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.82 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:14 +14’	1.91	3.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34	1.93	3.41	3.71
02:22	1.95▲	3.45▲	3.76▲
21:44 +2’	1.92▼	3.51▲	3.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Guarani Asuncion 4–0–2 Deportivo Recoleta

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	2-1 HT 2-1	Guarani Asuncion
19/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	3-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Recoleta
19/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Recoleta
04/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	2-3 HT 1-2	Guarani Asuncion
03/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	0-3 HT 0-1	Guarani Asuncion
21/02/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	1-3 HT 1-1	Deportivo Recoleta

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guarani Asuncion	Deportivo Recoleta
Olimpia Asuncion	1-1 D	1-2 L
Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 D	1-3 L
2 de Mayo	0-0 D	1-2 L
Rubio Nu	2-3 L	3-1 W
Nacional Asuncion	0-0 D	3-2 W
Libertad Asuncion	2-1 W	1-4 L
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Guarani Asuncion (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guarani Asuncion

WLLWWDLDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
25/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
15/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
09/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
02/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
30/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
26/07	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
23/05	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
16/05	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	7	6	W

Deportivo Recoleta

LWDLWWLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-3	1-3	6	2	L
29/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
14/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	1-2	8	1	L
07/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
03/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-2	0	3	W
30/07	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-4	8	4	L
25/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	13	7	D
23/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
15/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guarani Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guarani Asuncion win (47%). Probabilities: Guarani Asuncion 47%, draw 27%, Deportivo Recoleta 26%.

How many goals are expected in Guarani Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Guarani Asuncion 1.71 · Deportivo Recoleta 1.22), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guarani Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.