Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 28/08, 22:30
Prediction: Mushuc Runa vs Delfin SC
Team pages: Mushuc Runa · Delfin SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Mushuc Runa1.56
Delfin SC0.76
1X2
Mushuc Runa
Draw
Delfin SC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Mushuc Runa
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Delfin SC
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mushuc Runa
3–3
Delfin SC
(6 last)
- Delfin SC1-0Mushuc Runa
- Delfin SC3-1Mushuc Runa
- Mushuc Runa2-0Delfin SC
- Delfin SC4-2Mushuc Runa
- Mushuc Runa5-0Delfin SC
- Mushuc Runa2-0Delfin SC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mushuc Runa 1503 · Delfin SC 1453
| Mushuc Runa | Draw | Delfin SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 28% | 17% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mushuc Runa (rating 1503 vs 1453).
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mushuc Runa | Delfin SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/67/11% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6 | 1.6 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.6 | 3.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mushuc Runa 3–0–3 Delfin SC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Delfin SC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Mushuc Runa |
| 16/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Delfin SC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Mushuc Runa |
| 18/02/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Delfin SC |
| 08/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Delfin SC | 4-2 HT 1-0 | Mushuc Runa |
| 19/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Delfin SC |
| 16/09/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Delfin SC |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 26 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 64 | 26 | 67 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 44 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 45 | 23 | 43 |
| 4 | Macara | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 33 | 26 | 42 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 20 | 41 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 20 | 39 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Libertad | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 37 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 35 |
| 9 | Mushuc Runa | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 32 | 34 | 33 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 33 |
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 32 | 32 |
| 12 | Emelec | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 32 |
| 13 | Orense | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 39 | 30 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 26 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 23 | 37 | 26 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 28 | 24 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 37 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mushuc Runa | Delfin SC |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Cuenca | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Tecnico Universitario | 3-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Emelec | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Orense | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| SD Aucas | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 4 D 0 L | 0 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Mushuc Runa (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mushuc Runa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 16/08 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 10/08 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 27/07 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 20/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 14/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 23/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
Delfin SC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 04/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 06/07 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 25/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mushuc Runa vs Delfin SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mushuc Runa win (56%). Probabilities: Mushuc Runa 56%, draw 27%, Delfin SC 17%.
How many goals are expected in Mushuc Runa vs Delfin SC?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Mushuc Runa 1.56 · Delfin SC 0.76), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Mushuc Runa vs Delfin SC?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.