Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 07/09, 02:00

Prediction: SD Aucas vs Barcelona Guayaquil

Team pages: SD Aucas · Barcelona Guayaquil

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

SD Aucas1.18

Barcelona Guayaquil0.84

1X2

44% 31% 26%

SD Aucas Draw Barcelona Guayaquil

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

SD Aucas 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWLWWD

Barcelona Guayaquil 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDLDWLW

Head-to-head

SD Aucas 1–3–2 Barcelona Guayaquil (6 last)

Barcelona Guayaquil3-0SD Aucas
Barcelona Guayaquil1-0SD Aucas
Barcelona Guayaquil1-1SD Aucas
SD Aucas2-0Barcelona Guayaquil
SD Aucas1-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil1-1SD Aucas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SD Aucas 1497 · Barcelona Guayaquil 1505

	SD Aucas	Draw	Barcelona Guayaquil
Our model	43%	33%	25%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Barcelona Guayaquil: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SD Aucas	Barcelona Guayaquil
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.23
2	3.00 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.73 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:38 +3’	2.38	3.10	3.00
01:30 +13’	2.20▼	3.10	3.30▲
07:56 +11’	2.10▼	3.20▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:38 +2’	2.21	3.10	3.31
23:16 +1’	2.23▲	3.13▲	3.35▲
23:58 +2’	2.17▼	3.15▲	3.46▲
08:06 +1’	2.04▼	3.23▲	3.73▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Aucas 1–3–2 Barcelona Guayaquil

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	3-0 HT 1-0	SD Aucas
14/02/26 America Friendlies	Barcelona Guayaquil	1-0 HT 0-0	SD Aucas
28/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	1-1 HT 1-1	SD Aucas
02/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	2-0 HT 1-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
02/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	1-1 HT 0-1	Barcelona Guayaquil
13/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	1-1 HT 0-1	SD Aucas

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	28	22	2	4	67	30	68
2	Macara	28	14	6	8	39	30	48
3	SD Aucas	28	14	6	8	32	27	48
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	28	12	9	7	48	26	45
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	28	11	9	8	30	23	42
6	LDU Quito	28	12	6	10	27	22	42
7	Leones FC	28	10	8	10	30	30	38
8	Club Atletico Libertad	28	10	8	10	30	31	38
9	Mushuc Runa	28	9	10	9	33	34	37
10	Guayaquil City	28	9	9	10	27	31	36
11	Emelec	28	9	9	10	24	33	36
12	Deportivo Cuenca	28	10	5	13	24	35	35
13	Orense	28	8	6	14	31	42	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	28	9	2	17	26	39	29
15	Delfin SC	28	7	6	15	18	29	27
16	Manta FC	28	5	5	18	17	41	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SD Aucas	Barcelona Guayaquil
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-1 D	1-2 L
Club Atletico Libertad	1-0 W	1-0 W
LDU Quito	0-1 L	0-1 L
Leones FC	3-0 W	1-1 D
Macara	1-4 L	1-2 L
Orense	1-2 L	3-0 W
Independiente del Valle	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Barcelona Guayaquil (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SD Aucas

LWLLWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
30/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
23/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
17/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	7	10	L
08/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
02/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-4	6	3	L
23/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
19/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
16/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	2	4	L

Barcelona Guayaquil

DWLLDLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	5	W
30/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
23/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
16/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
09/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
03/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
27/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
22/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
19/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SD Aucas vs Barcelona Guayaquil?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SD Aucas win (44%). Probabilities: SD Aucas 44%, draw 31%, Barcelona Guayaquil 26%.

How many goals are expected in SD Aucas vs Barcelona Guayaquil?

The model expects 2.03 goals (SD Aucas 1.18 · Barcelona Guayaquil 0.84), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SD Aucas vs Barcelona Guayaquil?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.