Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 07/09, 02:00

Prediction: Deportivo Cuenca vs Club Atletico Libertad

Team pages: Deportivo Cuenca · Club Atletico Libertad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Deportivo Cuenca1.41

Club Atletico Libertad0.68

1X2

55% 28% 18%

Deportivo Cuenca Draw Club Atletico Libertad

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Cuenca 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLDLW

Club Atletico Libertad 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWDWLD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Cuenca 2–2–2 Club Atletico Libertad (6 last)

Club Atletico Libertad0-1Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca3-0Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad2-1Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca0-1Club Atletico Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca1-1Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad0-0Deportivo Cuenca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Cuenca 1464 · Club Atletico Libertad 1526

	Deportivo Cuenca	Draw	Club Atletico Libertad
Our model	54%	30%	17%
Market	55%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico Libertad (rating 1464 vs 1526).
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Cuenca	Club Atletico Libertad
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.4	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.68
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.64 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:38 +3’	1.67	3.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:38 +2’	1.66	3.59	4.90
23:16	1.68▲	3.64▲	4.98▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Cuenca 2–2–2 Club Atletico Libertad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Cuenca
05/03/26 Copa Sudamericana	Deportivo Cuenca	3-0 HT 1-0	Club Atletico Libertad
05/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	2-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Cuenca
08/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Deportivo Cuenca	0-1 HT 0-0	Club Atletico Libertad
23/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Deportivo Cuenca	1-1 HT 0-0	Club Atletico Libertad
28/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Cuenca

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	28	22	2	4	67	30	68
2	Macara	28	14	6	8	39	30	48
3	SD Aucas	28	14	6	8	32	27	48
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	28	12	9	7	48	26	45
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	28	11	9	8	30	23	42
6	LDU Quito	28	12	6	10	27	22	42
7	Leones FC	28	10	8	10	30	30	38
8	Club Atletico Libertad	28	10	8	10	30	31	38
9	Mushuc Runa	28	9	10	9	33	34	37
10	Guayaquil City	28	9	9	10	27	31	36
11	Emelec	28	9	9	10	24	33	36
12	Deportivo Cuenca	28	10	5	13	24	35	35
13	Orense	28	8	6	14	31	42	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	28	9	2	17	26	39	29
15	Delfin SC	28	7	6	15	18	29	27
16	Manta FC	28	5	5	18	17	41	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Cuenca	Club Atletico Libertad
Guayaquil City	1-0 W	2-2 D
Tecnico Universitario	1-3 L	1-0 W
Mushuc Runa	0-0 D	2-0 W
Orense	0-2 L	3-0 W
Emelec	2-1 W	1-1 D
Macara	0-3 L	1-0 W
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico Libertad (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Cuenca

DLLWLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
29/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
16/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
11/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	8	2	L
02/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
28/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	12	7	W
22/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
18/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
16/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	4	4	D

Club Atletico Libertad

WLWWWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
30/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
25/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
15/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
10/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
01/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	2	0	W
27/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
21/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
19/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
15/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Cuenca vs Club Atletico Libertad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Cuenca win (55%). Probabilities: Deportivo Cuenca 55%, draw 28%, Club Atletico Libertad 18%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Cuenca vs Club Atletico Libertad?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Deportivo Cuenca 1.41 · Club Atletico Libertad 0.68), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Cuenca vs Club Atletico Libertad?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.