Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 04/09, 02:00

Prediction: Club Atletico Libertad vs Emelec

Team pages: Club Atletico Libertad · Emelec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Club Atletico Libertad1.51

Emelec0.63

1X2

58% 28% 14%

Club Atletico Libertad Draw Emelec

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Atletico Libertad 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWDWL

Emelec 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLDLLDWL

Head-to-head

Club Atletico Libertad 1–4–1 Emelec (6 last)

Emelec1-1Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad1-2Emelec
Emelec1-1Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad2-1Emelec
Emelec0-0Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad0-0Emelec

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico Libertad (rating 1550 vs 1473).
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Atletico Libertad	Emelec
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	1.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 21.78

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.77 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.80
X	3.12 → 3.15▲	Pinn 3.15
2	2.54 → 2.56▲	Pinn 2.56

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:18 +1’	2.77	3.12	2.54
02:20 +1’	2.80▲	3.15▲	2.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Libertad 1–4–1 Emelec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-1 HT 1-1	Club Atletico Libertad
04/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	1-2 HT 0-1	Emelec
12/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-1 HT 1-0	Club Atletico Libertad
30/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	2-1 HT 2-0	Emelec
02/06/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	0-0 HT 0-0	Club Atletico Libertad
05/08/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	0-0 HT 0-0	Emelec

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	27	22	2	3	66	28	68
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	27	12	8	7	47	25	44
3	SD Aucas	26	13	5	8	30	26	44
4	Macara	26	12	6	8	33	26	42
5	LDU Quito	27	12	5	10	27	22	41
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	27	10	9	8	28	22	39
7	Club Atletico Libertad	26	10	7	9	29	29	37
8	Mushuc Runa	27	9	9	9	33	34	36
9	Guayaquil City	27	9	9	9	27	30	36
10	Leones FC	26	9	8	9	28	28	35
11	Emelec	26	8	8	10	21	31	32
12	Deportivo Cuenca	27	9	5	13	23	35	32
13	Orense	26	8	6	12	30	39	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	27	9	2	16	26	38	29
15	Delfin SC	27	6	6	15	17	29	24
16	Manta FC	27	5	5	17	14	37	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Atletico Libertad	Emelec
SD Aucas	0-1 L	0-2 L
Guayaquil City	2-2 D	0-0 D
Orense	3-0 W	2-0 W
Mushuc Runa	2-0 W	1-1 D
Delfin SC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Barcelona Guayaquil	0-1 L	0-0 D
Tecnico Universitario	1-0 W	2-1 W
LDU Quito	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico Libertad (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Atletico Libertad

DWLWWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
25/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
15/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
10/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
01/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	2	0	W
27/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
21/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
19/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
15/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Emelec

DDWLDLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
10/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
02/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
28/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
24/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	11	2	D
20/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-3	1-6	0	2	L
17/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
13/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
06/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Atletico Libertad vs Emelec?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Atletico Libertad win (58%). Probabilities: Club Atletico Libertad 58%, draw 28%, Emelec 14%.

How many goals are expected in Club Atletico Libertad vs Emelec?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Club Atletico Libertad 1.51 · Emelec 0.63), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Atletico Libertad vs Emelec?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.