Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 06/09, 01:00

Prediction: Independiente del Valle vs Macara

Team pages: Independiente del Valle · Macara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Independiente del Valle2.1

Macara0.98

1X2

62% 22% 16%

Independiente del Valle Draw Macara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente del Valle 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWD

Macara 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Independiente del Valle 5–1–0 Macara (6 last)

Macara0-3Independiente del Valle
Macara1-2Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle1-1Macara
Independiente del Valle7-0Macara
Macara0-1Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle1-0Macara

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1661 vs 1548).
H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente del Valle	Macara
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.2	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.6	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.79

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:46

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.50
X	4.13 → 4.13	Pinn 4.13
2	6.05 → 6.05	Pinn 6.05

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:46	1.50	4.13	6.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle 5–1–0 Macara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	0-3 HT 0-1	Independiente del Valle
12/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	1-2 HT 1-1	Independiente del Valle
16/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	1-1 HT 0-1	Macara
24/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	7-0 HT 6-0	Macara
26/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	0-1 HT 0-0	Independiente del Valle
25/09/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	1-0 HT 0-0	Macara

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	27	22	2	3	66	28	68
2	Macara	28	14	6	8	39	30	48
3	SD Aucas	27	14	5	8	31	26	47
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	27	12	8	7	47	25	44
5	LDU Quito	28	12	6	10	27	22	42
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	27	10	9	8	28	22	39
7	Mushuc Runa	28	9	10	9	33	34	37
8	Club Atletico Libertad	27	10	7	10	29	30	37
9	Guayaquil City	27	9	9	9	27	30	36
10	Leones FC	27	9	8	10	29	30	35
11	Emelec	27	9	8	10	23	32	35
12	Deportivo Cuenca	27	9	5	13	23	35	32
13	Orense	27	8	6	13	31	41	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	28	9	2	17	26	39	29
15	Delfin SC	28	7	6	15	18	29	27
16	Manta FC	28	5	5	18	17	41	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente del Valle	Macara
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-2 D	1-1 D
Delfin SC	3-2 W	1-2 L
Deportivo Cuenca	1-0 W	3-0 W
Orense	3-2 W	2-1 W
Tecnico Universitario	3-0 W	2-0 W
SD Aucas	3-0 W	4-1 W
Mushuc Runa	4-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente del Valle

WWWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-2	5	2	D
22/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-2	9	5	W
15/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-1	3-2	9	4	W
08/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
02/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
26/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
22/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
20/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	6-1	6	2	W
16/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
11/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	4-1	6	4	W

Macara

WWLWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
25/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
18/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
02/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	7	9	W
26/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	4-1	2	3	W
22/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	4	6	W
18/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
14/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
11/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente del Valle vs Macara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente del Valle win (62%). Probabilities: Independiente del Valle 62%, draw 22%, Macara 16%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle vs Macara?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Independiente del Valle 2.1 · Macara 0.98), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs Macara?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.