Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 06/09, 23:00

Prediction: Delfin SC vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Team pages: Delfin SC · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Delfin SC0.98

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.4

1X2

25% 29% 46%

Delfin SC Draw Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Delfin SC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDLLLW

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLDWDD

Head-to-head

Delfin SC 1–3–2 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (6 last)

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-2Delfin SC
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1-1Delfin SC
Delfin SC1-0Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-1Delfin SC
Delfin SC0-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-2Delfin SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Delfin SC 1480 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1562

	Delfin SC	Draw	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Our model	25%	30%	45%
Market	25%	29%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (rating 1480 vs 1562).
H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Delfin SC	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.1	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.20

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
X	3.30 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.57 ★
2	1.83 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.05

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:11 +27’	4.10	3.30	1.83
07:59 +3’	3.60▼	3.20▼	2.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:38	3.31	3.53	2.03
23:15	3.35▲	3.57▲	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Delfin SC 1–3–2 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-2 HT 1-1	Delfin SC
13/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-1 HT 1-0	Delfin SC
18/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
24/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-1 HT 2-1	Delfin SC
07/04/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	0-2 HT 0-1	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
24/10/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-2 HT 1-0	Delfin SC

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	28	22	2	4	67	30	68
2	Macara	28	14	6	8	39	30	48
3	SD Aucas	28	14	6	8	32	27	48
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	28	12	9	7	48	26	45
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	28	11	9	8	30	23	42
6	LDU Quito	28	12	6	10	27	22	42
7	Leones FC	28	10	8	10	30	30	38
8	Club Atletico Libertad	28	10	8	10	30	31	38
9	Mushuc Runa	28	9	10	9	33	34	37
10	Guayaquil City	28	9	9	10	27	31	36
11	Emelec	28	9	9	10	24	33	36
12	Deportivo Cuenca	28	10	5	13	24	35	35
13	Orense	28	8	6	14	31	42	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	28	9	2	17	26	39	29
15	Delfin SC	28	7	6	15	18	29	27
16	Manta FC	28	5	5	18	17	41	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Delfin SC	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Tecnico Universitario	1-0 W	5-0 W
SD Aucas	0-1 L	1-1 D
Independiente del Valle	2-3 L	2-2 D
LDU Quito	1-2 L	1-0 W
Club Atletico Libertad	0-1 L	1-2 L
Macara	2-1 W	1-1 D
Manta FC	1-0 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Delfin SC

WWLLLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	10	W
28/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
23/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
15/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-3	2-3	5	4	L
09/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
04/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-2	1	2	L
26/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
21/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
18/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	1	W

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

WWWDWLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
29/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-2	3	2	D
22/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-1	5-1	6	3	W
18/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
10/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
01/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	5-0	3	5	W
27/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
22/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
18/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
16/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Delfin SC vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win (46%). Probabilities: Delfin SC 25%, draw 29%, Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 46%.

How many goals are expected in Delfin SC vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Delfin SC 0.98 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.4), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Delfin SC vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.